David Penberthy says SA is in a jobs crisis so Premier Steven Marshall needs to take charge
As the state lurches towards a full-blown jobs crisis with the highest unemployment rate in three years, SA Premier Steven Marshall needs to fire up and take charge, says David Penberthy.
Opinion
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The word “crisis” is the most overblown and overused in the political lexicon. It would be hysterical to suggest that a new government, which cruised to power against a tired, 16-year-old incumbent, could face anything resembling a crisis so early in its first term.
But if the next set of job numbers are as bad for our state as the past two have been, Steven Marshall will be facing if not a crisis then a hugely demanding early test of his leadership, if you define leadership as the capacity to come up with good ideas under pressure.
The last two sets of jobs figures have given SA the highest rate of unemployment in the nation, hitting a recent new high of 7.3 per cent last week, up from 6.9 per cent the previous month.
The disturbing thing is that it was believed (and stated) that the August figures were an outlier that would be corrected when the September numbers came out. It was also implied by the Premier that the August figures were almost cause for celebration, as they showed – and he is telling the truth here – that the rate of employment had never been stronger, hitting a new record high last week of 855,400.
Correspondingly, the rate of intrastate migration has also halved, suggesting we are finally arresting the brain drain that has seen our best and brightest drift to the east.
Mr Marshall argued the August figures were good news in that they showed the economy was growing and more people were looking for work because they sensed the turnaround. Asked if there was any cause for alarm, he said: “None whatsoever. The trajectory is very, very positive – much better than we’ve seen for the last decade.”
Labor tried to spin this into Marshall’s Harold McMillan moment, the British Tory leader who memorably declared “you have never had it so good” in calling for wage restraint in the late 1950s. While it was nothing of the sort, Marshall’s enthusiasm last month now seems far too breezy and blasé set against last week’s figures.
The Government clearly knew that, rolling out Treasurer Rob Lucas last week who in suitably grimmer tones said the figures were “disappointing” and that the state faced “significant challenges”.
Lucas went on to enunciate the problem SA has now had existed for the better (or worse) part of 20 years, as the manufacture of whitegoods and textiles ended, as Mitsubishi went and Holden sputtered to a halt, dragging down all those allied component makers with them.
“We are transitioning from essentially a manufacturing-based economy to an exciting future of space, shipbuilding, cyber and defence,” Lucas said.
“In the interim, we are going to have to manage the significant job challenges over the transition period.”
The key word there is “interim”. South Australians use the term “valley of death” to describe the lag time between construction on big defence projects such as subs and ships, but the term actually applies more validly and ominously to our entire economy as we try to shift from the old to the new. It is here where things can get real scary real fast for Steven Marshall.
The last thing the Premier wants to sound like is the former premier. He has a bit over the past few weeks. The line the new Government uses to rationalise the high unemployment rate is the same one used by Labor; conversely, in Opposition, Mr Marshall always argued that the headline rate was the one that mattered; now, it’s all about the number of jobs created.
All of that is just politics, and will forever be thus. The more important question is: what’s the Government going to do about it?
The Government can at least point to the $12 billion-odd in infrastructure spending it has outlined for the next four years. However, the jobless rate shows that this money and these projects alone are not creating enough jobs to keep aspiring workers in employment.
The Government has faced robust criticism from groups such as the Civil Contractors Federation about the slow lag time in some of these projects, or the fact that they are being “bundled” and contracted out to bigger interstate or international construction firms that act as one-stop shops for bridges and roads, meaning smaller locals get frozen out.
The Government should sit down with the CCF and listen and act on these grievances – and by way of a disclosure, I say that not because the CCF advertises on FIVEaa, but because I completely agree with them.
The Government also needs to have some kind of reboot with the job-creating lobby groups across our state’s economy, with whom relations have deteriorated to the point of collapse over the land tax reforms.
The troubling thing for our state is that at a time when we need unity of purpose and collaborative thought on job creation, the Government has been openly brawling with the Property Council and faces strained relations with Business SA and the Master Builders Association amid the land tax brawl.
These are the people who could sit down together to come up with solutions; instead, they’re sniping at each other in the press.
There are some who have criticised Marshall forces’ enthusiasm over projects such as Lot Fourteen, saying it is ill-defined, MFP-style thought-bubble stuff.
While I disagree with that assessment, and think we should all be excited and curious about these jobs of the future in space, robotics, high-end defence and advanced manufacturing, Marshall needs to match that enthusiasm with real-time pragmatic action that doesn’t involve vague discussions of the future but tangible measures affecting what’s happening today.
Most of all, Steven Marshall needs to fire up. He needs to realise that he is officially in charge now. Perhaps the Libs were in the wilderness for so long that the sheer shock of finally winning an election means they haven’t stopped pinching themselves.
A few more sets of job figures like these and they will really be feeling the pinch.