Daniel Wills: South Australia is a three-party state where old rules don’t apply after election 2016
ANALYSIS: SOUTH Australia is now a three-party state, where almost none of the old rules apply.
SOUTH Australia is now a three-party state, where almost none of the old rules apply.
Independent Senator Nick Xenophon and his ragtag team of former staffers and political wannabes created history last night and may have turned over the entire state of play in SA. They have taken the blue ribbon seat of Mayo off the Liberal Party, and early signs last night were that Senator Xenophon could be joined by two other colleagues in the Upper House.
There is a chance the vast regional seat of Grey — a completely different electorate that’s home to steelmaking and sheep farming — could fall to the orange army during as counting goes on.
There is no precedent for this incredible result. At 9pm last night, the Nick Xenophon Team had more than 20 per cent of the primary vote across Lower House SA seats.
In total, more than a third of South Australians went outside the two old parties.
The carnage touched both Labor and Liberal, but was most brutal on the conservatives.
The Coalition suffered a 9.3 per cent collapse in its primary vote, more than double the 4.2 per cent lost by Labor. While it started from a higher base, it appears to have most to fear.
Some of this is no doubt a protest vote against the incumbent from Liberals unprepared to vote Labor, possibly due to the Coalition’s late conversion to caring about SA’s key issues.
Under former prime minister Tony Abbott, the Liberals pulled back hard on funding for the car industry and closely considered sending the future submarine build offshore.
While the eventual promise of an Adelaide submarine build sparked scenes of jubilation, it appears many SA voters have long memories. That decision avoided a wipe-out and has returned big players like industry minister Christopher Pyne. It has not been enough to heal every wound.
This election has also shown the great resilience of SA Labor’s campaign backroom. It protected its base with a penalty rates scare campaign against Senator Xenophon that stemmed the losses. In fact, it could even overcome the X-factor election and increase its Lower House seat count.
As in recent state elections and by-elections, SA Labor has made the most of a bad situation. But the hardest work for NXT now begins.
Many in the Liberal Party who have worked alongside new federal MP Rebekah Sharkie strongly doubt her ability to stand up under pressure. Senator Xenophon will now also have to wrangle his own voting bloc in a febrile Parliament.
No longer can all the Nick Xenophon Team’s decisions be made while looking in a mirror.
But the message has gone out loud and clear to the majors that they both must also do better, as NXT considers running again at a state election to be held in just over 18 months time.