Daniel Wills: SA Treasurer’s fourth State Budget could see the purse strings loosened to win votes
TREASURER Tom Koutsantonis’ fourth State Budget will be handed down next week, and set the frame for nine months of campaigning ahead of an election that looks finely balanced, says Daniel Wills.
- Federal Budget 2017: What it means for SA
- Master Builders: It’s the Budget’s job to create jobs
- SA department to lose $30 million in funding
- Treasurer announces Emergency Services Levy to drop
TREASURER Tom Koutsantonis’ fourth State Budget will be handed down next week, and set the frame for nine months of campaigning ahead of an election that looks finely balanced.
After 18 months from hell, in which Labor has taken a daily battering on everything from Oakden to child protection and energy to jobs, it seemed to finally get its head just above the water line this week. Now it desperately needs to build some serious momentum heading into Christmas.
With smiles as wide as North Tce, Premier Jay Weatherill and Health Minister Jack Snelling marked another milestone in the delayed delivery of the new Royal Adelaide Hospital and can see light at the end of the tunnel as its long-awaited opening gets on track for September.
Some welcome news is also coming out of Whyalla, as Arrium administrators settle on a preferred buyer and fears of a wipe-out recede as governments prepare to pitch in and keep the steelworks open.
Police Minister Peter Malinauskas gave his future leadership ambitions a boost, swinging focus back to the cut-through issues of tackling the ice epidemic and locking up possible terrorists.
Budget day is the most controlled media event of the year, as the Treasurer locks away the state’s political journalists for a spiel on how he plans to spend billions of dollars in other people’s money.
This one shapes as a goodie-bag bigger than most because the piggy bank is full after flogging off $2.5 billion in Motor Accident Commission assets, and some spending restraint.
The question becomes how to spend the bounty. Mr Koutsantonis has a range of choices, which include doubling down on Labor’s strong record of building infrastructure and targeting seats with new projects, or accelerating the tax reform process which began in 2015.
There may even be enough cash sloshing about to do a bit of both.
“Overwhelmingly, we now need to step up an offer a vision,” Mr Koutsantonis told The Advertiser on Friday.
“This is a Budget about jobs. It’s heavily focused on the transition.
“We do really need to double down on the sectors that are growing and creating jobs.
“Now, it’s really putting the pedal down on that transition from automotive to new industries.”
Whatever specific measures are included in the Budget papers, the most significant political effect is that it will lay out Labor’s priorities for four years and force more ferocious questioning about those of their rivals. Labor will be committing close to $100 billion over the forward estimates to programs in health, education, cost of living and infrastructure.
If the Liberals want to add points of difference by, say, going harder on cutting payroll and land tax or putting their own infrastructure elsewhere, they’ll need to explain which Labor project will have to fall by the wayside to achieve it.
Opposition Leader Steven Marshall has far more policy exposed today than he did at the corresponding point in the last electoral cycle, but is still battling against a view bashed in over a long period of time that his party lacks vision.
After a decade of leadership instability and small-target strategies, there needs to be a series of seriously dramatic policies that contrast with Labor to shift that ingrained view.
Despite already having put shop-trading reform, cuts to the Emergency Services Levy, council rate-capping and new trade policy on the table, polls show voters remain lukewarm.
The Liberals seem determined to leave some of their biggest announcements until late in the campaign, which will inevitably be fought on the critical areas of jobs and energy. The theory goes that voters only switch on late, and there’s no point talking when they’re not listening.
That gives Labor a chance to steal a march in the next few months and either build their primary vote back to a competitive level or force the Liberals to expose themselves earlier than planned.
Budget day is one predictable inflection point for the campaign, and a few more will come in quick succession.
The new RAH opens in September, and could bring a boost for Labor similar to that seen when the first bounce at the new Adelaide Oval blew away all the whingers.
Another comes in October, when Holden shuts the doors on nearly 60 years of history at its Elizabeth plant. It will revive old arguments around the federal Coalition’s decision not to pump in more billions to prevent a head-on collision which will worsen the jobs crisis.
But the big daddy is going to be summer, when Labor’s energy plan will be put to the test.
On balance, all evidence suggests it’s highly likely that crazy electricity price increases announced this week will be backed up by more blackouts at the hottest part of the cycle.
And there’ll be the consistent monthly drumbeat of new unemployment figures which will steadily creep upwards over the later part of this year and during the final campaign sprint.