Daniel Wills: Nick Xenophon team rides wave of discontent
AS RESULTS begin rolling in tonight, South Australia is set to become one of the big stories, turning recent political history on its head.
AS RESULTS begin rolling in tonight, South Australia is set to become one of the biggest stories of a marathon federal election campaign, turning recent political history on its head.
Beneath the nationwide battle between Labor and the Coalition to decide who forms government, the Nick Xenophon Team’s emergence could be a tectonic shift for SA politics.
And this may just be the first campaign where it creates shockwaves; Senator Xenophon has told The Advertiser he is also considering a serious tilt as the state election in March 2018.
The Greens and Democrats have each capitalised on a trend of dwindling confidence in the major parties and a breakdown in traditional brand loyalties, but neither has even been able to dream of the massive vote which polls show NXT is likely to record at SA ballot boxes today.
There is a serious possibility Senator Xenophon and his unheralded team of unknown candidates could wake up tomorrow morning as a true third force in SA, with seats in both houses.
The NXT scored a huge Senate result in 2013, capitalising on both the chaos of the Rudd-Gillard-Rudd era and nagging public doubts about would-be prime minister Tony Abbott.
Scoring close to 25 per cent of the vote, Senator Xenophon personally outpolled the entire Labor Party and went within a few points of eclipsing even the Coalition on primary votes.
Today, he’s seeking to do the same thing in the house where government is formed. A recent Newspoll places NXT on 29 per cent of the SA primary vote. It is a threat in almost every Lower House seat from Stirling to Streaky Bay, and terrifying both major parties.
Clearly there’s something about Senator Xenophon personally that appeals to a lot of voters.
He brings an uncommon humour to national politics and, untethered by truly hard choices that come with the burden government, Senator Xenophon is able to be all things to most people.
But he’s also riding a wave of discontent that’s currently sweeping across the globe.
From Brexit to Donald Trump, voters have repeatedly shown they’re so frustrated with business as usual that they’re prepared to support radical change and just deal with the consequences later.
And the trends driving it, chiefly the relentless march of globalisation, are being felt as acutely in SA as anywhere in the world. Whyalla and Adelaide’s northern suburbs have a clear kinship with Detroit in America’s Mid West and deindustrialised regions of the United Kingdom.
The major parties are struggling to take many people with them as the breakdown of borders and trade barriers improves general wealth while creating individual cases of extreme hard luck.
Senator Xenophon started in the State Parliament after winning a minuscule vote as a No Pokies candidate in 1997, where independent John Darley remains today as an NXT representative.
Senator Xenophon is also responsible for electing one of the most erratic MPs SA Parliament has seen, gifting one-time running mate Ann Bressington eight years in the Upper House that were spent espousing conspiracy theories about fluoride, vaccinations and the New World Order.
This week, Senator Xenophon told The Advertiser he was considering something of a comeback.
While he will obviously remain in Canberra, Senator Xenophon expects to run a team candidates for seats in both houses of State Parliament in just over a year and a half’s time.
“We want the dust to settle from the federal election campaign, and then see what happens,” he said. “We’ll see what lessons we learn, what seats we might go, what worked and what didn’t.
“We’re thinking about it, and I’d be surprised if we didn’t run in some Lower House seats.”
Increasing his party’s representation in Canberra brings opportunity and risk for Senator Xenophon. He would gain much greater resources and an expanded community infrastructure.
If he secures federal Lower House seats today, the NXT will have a direct connection with punters in large national seats that could be used to leverage support into state electorates.
The risks are clear, and the major parties are already warning of a Palmer United Party-style implosion where the “personality cult” comes apart as untested new politicians over-estimate their own importance and brilliance. NXT would have to defy history to hold its show together.
Should they manage to do so, the repercussions on a state election are potentially immense.
Support for the major SA parties appears soft, and is diminishing. An Advertiser-Galaxy poll in February found a prospective state NXT campaign could score 24 per cent of the vote, compared to 28 per cent for the Labor State Government and 33 per cent for the Liberal Opposition.
With low confidence in the current plan for the state and very little so far presented by way of an alternative, an established third force with campaign experience could spring big surprises.
And in state seats that are about a quarter the size of federal electorates, there is a higher chance of shock results swung by personal votes or under-the-radar issues. It is also a forum where hung parliaments have almost become par for the course, and each of the 47 seats is crucial.
The crystal ball is clouded. Very little is known about who Senator Xenophon will drag with him into Federal Parliament and what they will do with a new-found and expanded influence.
When the dust settles over the next few days, attention will quickly turn to exactly what is NXT.