Christopher Pyne: Beside the millions of deaths and illnesses, the coronavirus pandemic has been a PR catastrophe for China

China’s treatment of Australia these past few months might be painful to many, but the blue between the two countries is worse for them than us.

This has been the worst year for China in several decades. China ends 2020 in a much worse position than it ended 2019. I am just as patriotic as the next Australian. We will survive this current imbroglio.

Our economy is being hurt in particular sectors but it is versatile, resilient and strong.

As I write in the midst of the grapes of the Barossa Valley that right now the Chinese discourage, the Chinese media reports another coronavirus outbreak in Szechuan province, next to Hubei, where the pandemic began.

Quite apart from the millions of deaths, the tens of millions of cases of very ill people and the smashing of the world economy, the coronavirus pandemic has been a public relations catastrophe for China.

Only the most rusted on propagandist believes the virus did not emanate from China.

While this has been very unfortunate for China, and laying blame is somewhat pointless, it has deeply harmed the standing of China in the world.

While this has been very unfortunate for China, and laying blame is somewhat pointless, it has deeply harmed the standing of China in the world. Picture: Anthony Kwan/Getty Images

China has spent the better part of five decades working to convince the nations of the Indo Pacific and Asia in particular that they have nothing to fear from China.

Their diplomats, ministers, leaders and influencers have fanned out across the world since the death of Mao Zedong and the ascension of Deng Xiaoping assuring other countries that the Chinese Panda has no intention of dominating the world.

It does expect to be seen as the other great power along with the United States of America.

That’s where its rivalry with the United States creates the friction that we experience here in Australia.

To convince other countries of its benign intentions it downplays their role in its rivalry with the US and essentially suggests to them that they should butt out.

In short, China’s beef with the US doesn’t concern any other nation.

If China achieves that aim, the US will lose its network of allies and friends and China will be stronger because the US is weaker.

It has been a clever strategy and it has worked for some time.

Take the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN). These are ten small to medium sized countries that have avoided conflict with China since Vietnam and China fought the last land war in Asia in the summer of 1979-80. They have steered a middle road.

In 2020, China’s strategy has come apart at the seams.

COVID-19 has only been one part of China’s PR year from hell.

COVID-19 has only been one part of China’s PR year from hell. Picture: STR / AFP / China OUT

When Hong Kong was restored to Chinese control after more than a century of British administration, Beijing promised it would enact a form of government known as “one country, two systems”. That by and large has worked for twenty years. Not in 2020.

This year, the whole world has seen protests on a scale that no one thought was possible. Many Hong Kongers have been in uproar.

“One country, two systems” doesn’t look too benign to the other former province that China wishes to see reunited with Beijing – Taiwan.

If anything, the experience of Hong Kong in 2020 has hardened the attitude of the population of Taiwan against reunification.

The cause of Beijing in Taipei has been set back years.

The end of the Trump administration in Washington DC is not good news for China.

The last four years of the Trump presidency have been turbulent and unpredictable. President Trump believed he was a deal maker and that he could settle deals through personal relationships with other world leaders.

This may well be true. But it made for unorthodox policy making. Orthodoxy is predictable and safer than chaotic process.

A Biden presidency will make America more reliable than it has been. China would prefer an unsettled rival, not a calm and considered one.

Finally, to turn to China’s treatment of Australia these past few months.

While it is economically painful to many in Australia, from a geopolitical perspective, it has not helped China in the Indo Pacific.

It will have made the other nations in our region sit up and notice what can happen and in some cases it will make the regions leaders draw closer to China out of fear. In most capitals it will make them nervous and at least privately, it will draw them closer to their allies.

They will see strength in numbers and mutual support. While they might not break cover because they don’t want the same treatment that Australia is receiving, they will want the US to maintain and grow its strength in the region rather than the opposite.

From that standpoint, the blue with China is worse for China than it is for Australia.

I am confident that this is being debated right now in Beijing.

There will be proponents in the bureaucracy who have worked on the strategy China has pursued for fifty years that will be planning a strategy to normalise what has been a mutually beneficial relationship since the early 1970s.

For the sake of everyone, let’s hope they succeed.