Christopher Pyne: ALP powerbrokers will be anxious, but there’s five more weeks to run in this election

The federal election campaigns are only just ramping up, but Labor’s strategists must be having a few nightmares, writes Christopher Pyne.

One of the “privileges” of being a member of the leadership group of the Coalition for 10 years was the requirement to be on the 6am “morning call” every day of an election campaign. It’s hell.

That call covered the plan for the day, a review of the media that morning, a quick discussion about the opposition’s strategy and tactics, and a division of labour for tasks not previously planned.

Anthony Albanese’s team would almost certainly have a similar set up. They would have had a horror week of morning calls.

There’s little argument that the Labor campaign has got off to a shaky start. Even the national president of the Labor Party, Wayne Swan, admitted that much this week on national television.

Having run a relatively trouble-free outfit for the past three years, Labor seems to have hit snags under the water at precisely the worst time of the electoral cycle – the election campaign itself.

In the media over the weekend, Labor figures were unloading anonymously on the behind-the-scenes angst besetting the Albanese ship. That’s hardly going to help them get out of the dangerous shoals they are currently navigating.

In almost his first press conference of the six-week campaign, the putative prime minister was asked but failed to nominate the Reserve Bank cash rate and claimed the national unemployment rate was 5.4 per cent when it was 4 per cent.

The week didn’t improve.

Labor leader Anthony Albanese and partner Jodie Haydon attended Easter Sunday service at St Monica’s Cathedral in Cairns, Queensland. Picture: Toby ZernaPicture: Toby Zerna

Later he released a GP clinics policy and said it had been costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office. He then had to clarify that it had only been “informed” by the PBO and not costed by the PBO.

To make matters worse, the same policy was then slammed by the Australian Medical Association – the very people the policy was designed to support.

Mid-week, Albanese claimed that Labor would not need offshore asylum seeker processing centres as part of its version of Operation Sovereign Borders, only to have his deputy, Richard Marles, sent out to “clarify” his remarks.

The last thing Labor needs is to give Scott Morrison the chance to paint Labor as weak on border protection. Yet, that slip-up opened the door a crack to allow that to happen. The dawn Labor planning sessions would have resembled an emergency situation room as they tried to get the first week back on track and focused on a perceived core strength for Labor in health policy. It didn’t happen.

First week honours go to Morrison and the Coalition.

But this race is six weeks. Basically, six legs. There are five to go. No one has a clear run throughout.

Every day is a new contest. Morrison will have good days and bad days, and Albanese the same.

Labor will be hoping its bad days were in the first week and that from now on it will be plain sailing. Morrison will be working to keep his rudder true and hope Labor runs into a reef.

Campaigns are willing affairs. They certainly aren’t for the faint hearted.

The danger for Labor is that many voters will now tune out until the election day gets closer and their first impressions will stay with them until then. Albanese will be working hard to shift that impression.

The danger for the Coalition is that they will think the election is easier than they expected and complacency sets in.

They would be kidding themselves if they let themselves think that way.

And possibly saying some prayers, Labor leader Anthony Albanese attends a Good Friday service at St Charbel’s Monastery in Punchbowl, NSW during the federal election campaign. Picture: Toby Zerna

Labor is still the favourite to win this election.

They have led consistently in the published opinion polls for most of the past three years.

Rarely for an opposition leader, Albanese has sometimes been level pegging or preferred as prime minister to Morrison. Albanese has enjoyed solid approval ratings for some time.

The Coalition has been in office for almost nine years. While the economy is travelling well and the coronavirus pandemic feels like it is either behind us or almost behind us, every election presents an opportunity for the feeling that it’s “time for a change” to set in.

While it seems trite to say so, it is still too early to tell who will win on May 21.

Labor should expect to win. It has played a cool game for three years.

But, like an AFL team that is three goals up with five minutes to go, Labor knows it isn’t over until the final siren sounds. The Power found that to their great chagrin in their round 3 Showdown with the Crows. Politics, like football, is a zero-sum game – there can only be one winner.

I don’t know about you, but I am looking forward to the second leg of the campaign to see what twists and turns it might bring!