Caleb Bond: The moderates were essentially able to do what they liked

Right-of-centre parties do not win pretending to be left wing, and the Liberals need to learn where their new base is, writes Caleb Bond.

Where did it all go wrong for Steven Marshall?

Well, where didn’t it go wrong.

Firstly – an apology. I last week showed far too much optimism for the chances of a hung parliament.

While I correctly predicted that there would be five independents, that swing to Labor was well and truly on.

Perhaps, after a horror few years in terms of accuracy, the polls are back on track again.

But back to Mr Marshall.

While I was last week unconvinced that Labor would form government in its own right, I was convinced there was no way the Liberals could.

Mr Marshall, however, was confident they could be returned.

It was this confidence, and the associated arrogance, that I believe ultimately brought down his government.

Premier Steven Marshall. Picture: Kelly Barnes

With the party’s state executive and state council captured by Marshall’s moderates – and nearly every conservative expunged from the parliamentary party by natural attrition – the moderates were essentially able to do what they liked, completely unchecked.

The first version of the government’s land tax reform alienated the business community – which campaigned hard for Mr Marshall in 2018 – as did Covid-19 restrictions, including bringing back the 4sq m rule after nearly 90 per cent of the population were double vaxxed.

The late term abortion bill was not something a first term Liberal government should have pursued. It stood only to alienate an important section of the Liberal base and appeal to people who would never vote Liberal. Even some within the Liberal moderates were horrified that they would pursue such a controversial social issue. But it couldn’t be stopped.

It probably cost Paula Luethen her marginal seat of King where, at last count, she trailed by three per cent. The Australian Family Party, which did much better in King than anywhere else, and Family First, attracted a combined about seven per cent of the vote. Both preferenced against Ms Luethen for supporting the bill.

Waite is now held by Labor for the first time ever, chiefly because the Libs wouldn’t take back Sam Duluk after he was acquitted of assault. Mr Duluk running as an independent split the vote, as did the inclusion of Mitcham Mayor Heather Holmes-Ross.

The worst of it, though, is in the country – where the Liberals should never have had any worries.

Former member for Waite Sam Duluk handing out how to vote cards at Mitcham Village. Picture: Naomi Jellicoe

Geoff Brock’s trouncing of would-have-been future premier Dan van Holst Pellekaan was a massive blow – his inclusion in Labor’s cabinet on Thursday adding insult to injury.

Finniss is likely to fall and Adrian Pederick has taken a big hit to his primary vote in Hammond.

These are areas dominated by generally conservative voters who were peeved by the Marshall government’s interest in leftist social issues.

These were mistakes that never should have been made. But there was no one around to tell Mr Marshall where they were going wrong.

Right-of-centre parties do not win government by pretending to be left wing. The Liberal Party has to accept that its voter base is now in the suburbs and regions, not the inner city, and it has to look after them accordingly.

For a voter with family values in a marginal suburban seat, Peter Malinauskas seemed a safer pair of hands. Many of his MPs are certainly more conservative than most of the SA Liberals.

Mr Marshall ran a woeful campaign. He did not understand the politics and was completely outplayed my Mr Malinauskas.

This is where the moderates’ factional control kills the Liberals. They do not understand the politics – I had an experience of this last year.

I was at a Christmas barbecue when I noticed I had a couple of missed calls from a friend who had been a media boss in a government department (but never worked for the Liberals, as will soon be important) and a very senior media adviser to the premier.

Even Adrian Pederick country stronghold of Hammond took a beating. Picture: Naomi Jellicoe

I called back and was passed on to another ministerial media adviser who said they were having drinks at a pub in the city and I should swing by.

So I went to the pub and into a private room where they were holding these drinks.

The aforementioned senior media adviser brought me a gin and tonic and I was having a cordial conversation with him and another press secretary until I was approached by the premier’s deputy chief of staff, Paul Armanas.

Mr Armanas seemed most displeased with my presence and asked why I was there. I told him I was there because some of his colleagues invited me.

After much to-and-fro, Mr Armanas made it quite clear that it was a Liberal staff function and I was most definitely not welcome. I was not the only non-Liberal in the room but I was the only one to be ejected.

My only crime, as far as I could discern, was that I was too conservative for many of the SA Liberals and I had been consistently critical of Mr Marshall for his Covid response, ceding control to unelected bureaucrats.

Mr Armanas, by the by, also sat on both of the Liberal’s campaign committees. That certainly worked out well.

What it showed was that, despite the sense of some within the party, there was a core group who could not tolerate any dissent or any deviation from the moderate line.

It also, in hindsight, was an indication that the government was perhaps in more trouble than it wanted to admit. Why would a party apparatchik be so worried about a bloke who wrote a few critical pieces in the paper?

And don’t forget how they responded when Senator Alex Antic encouraged conservative Christians to sign up to the party – the state executive tried to cancel all their memberships.

The Liberals now need to do some soul searching that will involve serious reform and acceptance of their conservative base.

As one Liberal put it to me, perhaps it would be easier to abolish the party.