Analysis: Xenophon and other minor parties loom big as Labor, Libs jostle for supremacy

ANALYSIS: OUR exclusive poll reveals disenchantment with both major parties and Xenophon looms as kingmaker, says Political Editor Daniel Wills.

• Sunday Mail poll: Jay on the nose — Mr X is election kingmaker
• Bernardi: Marshall must block bank tax now
• Poll finding: Job loss fears — voters lash bank tax

THIS will be the most volatile and unpredictable state election SA has ever seen.

Today’s Sunday Mail/Galaxy poll reveals a state that is disillusioned with its collective leadership, sees virtually no difference between the two major parties and is searching frantically for some hope of better days ahead.

The headline number is a 50/50 deadlock in the two-party preferred vote.

Simplistically applied to the new electoral boundaries, it suggests four more years for Labor in a minority government with the continued support of independent Geoff Brock. That is a remarkable result for a 15-year-old government that faces a battering over blackouts, unemployment and abuse scandals.

It is a credit to Labor’s peerless political machine that victory can even be imagined. It’s also condemning of the Liberals, who haven’t been able to capitalise on Labor’s failures.

But nothing is simple in SA anymore. Voters will have more choice at this election than ever before. The Nick Xenophon SA Best team, One Nation, Australian Conservatives and other small parties will all make serious runs.

Senator Nick Xenophon’s party will have significant influence at the March election, if the latest Galaxy poll is any indication.

Combined, they are attracting more than one in three votes. The two old parties have seen their support collapse and both have gone backwards since the 2014 election.

The next election will be decided seat by seat and the fracturing of the vote means virtually any seat could be in play come March.

What Senator Xenophon will do is the great unknown. We don’t know who his candidates are going to be, how many he will run and where.

Anywhere that he creates a genuine three-way contest could lead to some shock results. By dragging down both parties’ votes, he creates a preference lottery where almost anyone could win.

If Senator Xenophon chooses to run heavily in the rural areas, this will create headaches for Opposition Leader Steven Marshall. If he sticks to the working-class western and northern suburbs, Premier Jay Weatherill could lose some of his heartland.

Optimistic Liberals will look at the preferred Premier rating showing Mr Marshall ahead of Mr Weatherill.

But the big number in that measure is the 31 per cent of respondents uncommitted.

The biggest unknown is whether this splintering of political support will continue all the way to election day, or whether people will ultimately vote for either of the two major parties when their minds are sharpened by questions raised in campaigning.

At the federal election, Senator Xenophon achieved a huge vote but did witness a serious decline in his support after Labor campaigned against him on penalty rates and the Coalition warned of chaos if a hung parliament were returned.

The state campaign is very likely to hear the same arguments. Anyone who says they know how that will play out is lying. This election is anyone’s to win but, at the moment, both major parties have set themselves up to lose.