Wet weather, storms expected across Top End over Easter weekend and chance of cyclone developing in northern waters

The chance of a cyclone forming in the northern region by the weekend is on the rise with the BoM increasing its tropical cyclone outlook to ‘low’ — or up to a 20 per cent chance — by Friday.

UPDATED: The chance of a cyclone forming in the northern region by the weekend is on the rise.

The Bureau of Meteorology has increased its tropical cyclone outlook to “low” — or up to a 20 per cent chance — on Friday.

It comes as a monsoon trough is forming across the Northern Arafura and Banda seas, but it is not expected to affect Darwin’s weather any time soon, with little to no rain expected for the Top End capital over the next couple of days.

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EARLIER: The likelihood of a tropical cyclone forming in northern waters is set to increase from Friday afternoon.

Weather website Weatherzone said rain and storms were likely to increase over parts of northern Australia later this week as a monsoon drifts towards Australia.

“Some areas could see heavy falls, particularly if low pressure systems or tropical cyclones develop and move close to or over land,” the website said.

“It’s too early to know if and where these lows or cyclones will develop, but computer models are showing signs that tropical cyclone activity will become more likely from about Friday onwards.”

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But Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Sally Cutter said there was a very slim chance of a cyclone building, with the tropical cyclone outlook indicating there were no significant lows in the region.

“At the moment, the chance of a tropical cyclone in Northern Australia is currently very low for the next couple of days,” she said.

“That means there’s a less than 5 per cent chance of a cyclone forming in the region, including the Northern Territory.”

Ms Cutter said the Bureau was keeping an eye on a trough that’s in the Banda Sea at the moment.

“There’s the possibility of it developing into a tropical low near East Timor in the next few days,” she said.

“A potential tropical low may drift closer to Australia later in the week.”

Darwin can expect a wet weekend, with forecasts predicting 70 per cent chance of rainfall on Easter Saturday, with the chance of thunderstorms and easterly 15 to 25 km winds turning north-easterly later in the day.

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The chance of a thunderstorm remains over the weekend with a 50 per cent chance of rain falling on Good Friday and Easter Sunday and a 30 per cent chance of rain falling on Easter Monday.

The Bureau forecasts a low system moving in on Darwin as the week progresses, from the north east, most likely to hit the Territory at some stage on Saturday evening.

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Originally published as Wet weather, storms expected across Top End over Easter weekend and chance of cyclone developing in northern waters