Population boost key to future NT prosperity
Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher is returning to Darwin after last year’s fact-filled presentation at FutureNT. Read what he’s thinking this year.
Northern Territory
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Demographer Simon Kuestenmacher is predicting a seismic shift in public perceptions around mining in coming years.
Keynote speaker at the FutureNT – Road map to 2030 conference, Mr Kuestenmacher said necessity would drive a change in perception and acceptability.
“What will happen over the coming decade is that the public energy towards mining will change as mining will move from an evil, polluting industry to green technology,” he said.
“We are electrifying the global transit network that means we go away from fossil fuels, from the combustion engine where it was very easy to manage supply.
“That was simple. You took over a single gulf state and you had all the energy that you needed. That’s not possible in an electrified grid.
“In an electrified transit network you need plenty of batteries, batteries need nine or 11 mining products to create a single battery and these mining products will be in highest demand.
“There will be a lot of money being paid for those but most importantly the supply chain sovereignty will be absolutely crucial in the coming decade.
“That means that battery producers all over the world are paying a premium to ensure to have enough of this stuff that they need. How many mining countries are there that are stable democracies, where the rule of law is guaranteed?”
Which is where the NT and federal governments come in.
Nationally, he said, mining employs 280,000 people out of a 14 million strong workforce. In terms of economic productivity, mining is six times larger than financial services, which is the nation’s second largest economic contributor.
The Territory’s push towards critical minerals production commenced last year when Core opened it’s Finniss lithium mine and its hoped other green energy prospects such as Arafura Resources’ Nolans Project will soon follow suit.
The NT government’s Resourcing the Territory website identifies 15 critical minerals within our borders as well as the geological potential for a further 13 emerging critical minerals.
Mr Kuestenmacher said the northern half of Australia was “outrageously under-populated”.
To address this – and a worldwide skills shortage – Darwin should present itself as the most “affordable” city in Australia.
The Territory government will be central to achieving this.
“The most important lever that you can pull is housing affordability,” he said. “Government can make more land available through re-zoning and being innovative in its approach … coming up with interesting, quirky new ways of housing people.
“Because we want many, many more low-income workers in Darwin in particular because it is the youngest of all states and territories but ageing is also happening here and in the next 10 years and in the next 10 years the 85-plus cohort is growing by 170 per cent.
“So who is taking on care jobs in this country? Almost exclusively international workers. We can get those workers as long as we can offer them … safe and secure housing, so all of a sudden housing becomes an issue.
“If you want to make sure in 10-years time we can get those workers as long as we can off them a good deal which means the ability to send money home and to give them safe and secure housing.”
With demographic shifts, Mr Kuestenmacher anticipates no end in sight to the global skills crisis and urged Australians not to push-back against emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence. “We are not at risk of having hordes of unemployed people roaming the streets in this country.”
A co-founder of The Demographics Group in 2017 with Bernard Salt, Mr Kuestenmacher holds degrees from universities in Berlin and Melbourne.
Mr Kuestenmacher will be keynote speaker at the FutureNT – Road map to 2030 conference at Mindil Beach Casino Resort from 11.30am on September 8.
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Originally published as Population boost key to future NT prosperity
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