It’s Official: The Maddening reason for our missing monsoon

It’s official. We’re in the middle of a nonsoon. Read when the Bureau says it will come.

Top End Monsoon Surfing at the Nightcliff Beach, Darwin. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

It’s official: Darwin’s monsoon is the latest it has ever been - and relief from the weather might still be some time away.

The Bureau of Meteorology said the latest previous known onset of the monsoon since records began in 1957-58 was on January 25, 1973.

The following year Cyclone Tracy struck.

While Top End residents were reaching for their umbrellas on Australia Day, unfortunately the downpour was non monsoon related.

Top End Monsoon Surfing at the Nightcliff Beach, Darwin. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

“Despite a brief burst of monsoon-like conditions across the Top End last weekend, the onset of the monsoon at Darwin has yet to occur,” the BOM said.

“The latest known onset was January 25, 1973. This means that the monsoon onset of this wet season will be the latest known onset on record.”

While stopping well short of a commitment, the Bureau suspects there is an “increased chance” of monsoon onset at Darwin in the next one-to-two weeks when the so-called Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to progress towards Australia.

“The Madden–Julian Oscillation modulates rainfall patterns and tropical cyclone potential in the region on weekly to monthly timescales during the northern wet season,” the BOM said.

“The monsoon has been delayed because the broadscale weather patterns associated with a monsoon have yet to develop over northern Australia.

“While a pulse of the MJO was favourably located for monsoon onset in the first half of December, other environmental factors were not favourable for onset at that time.

“The monsoon onset at Darwin needs to reach technical wind criteria to be formally recognised by the Bureau. The monsoon-like conditions at Darwin, particularly over January 17-18, fell short of these criteria.

“Since reliable records began in 1957-58, there has been a monsoon observed in Darwin every year.”

Originally published as It’s Official: The Maddening reason for our missing monsoon