August election polling data shows Labor taking a narrow lead

The latest data has revealed the current government is fighting back in the popularity polls just weeks out from the Territory election.

New polling has put the two major parties virtually neck-and-neck for the first time since Natasha Fyles’ resignation last year caused Labor’s popularity to plummet.

If an election were held today, Territory Labor would hold government with 29.5 per cent of the primary vote, narrowly inching ahead of the Country Liberal Party at 29.1 per cent.

In a troubling sign for the Opposition ahead of the August election, independent and minor party preferences will also flow to Labor by a significant margin, according to a uComms survey of 1,100 voters in Darwin and Palmerston.

Chief Minister Eva Lawler is regaining popularity as NT leader. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

When the 17.1 per cent of undecided voters were asked to make a pick, the two majors both held exactly 35.7 per cent of the primary vote.

It points to a turnaround from the last round of polling in May, which put Lia Finnochiaro’s opposition at a slim lead of 54 to 46.

Darwin and Palmerston together make up approximately three quarters of the NT’s population, meaning that while the findings are not conclusive, they suggest Chief Minister Eva Lawler is clawing back some of the ground lost by her predecessor.

Lia Finocchiaro has lost some of her advantage for preferred leader. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

Moreover, while first preferences for minor parties and independents numbered at 24.3 per cent, Labor would win government with 57.5 per cent of those voters preferencing it ahead of the Country Liberals.

Ms Fyles, the former chief minister, was pressured to step down last December for failing to disclose $2500 worth of shares in mining company South32, leaving Labor’s two party-preferred vote at just 42 points.

South32 was suspected of emitting toxic chemicals by locals of Groote Eylandt, and Ms Fyles’ critics accused her of a conflict of interest when she refused to authorise an investigation in her capacity as Health Minister.

No findings of wrongdoing were ever made, but it was the tip of the iceberg for voters’ discontent with a government also battling widespread crime and a cost of living crisis.

The new polling was commissioned by the Environment Centre NT and carried out between March and April, with a three per cent margin of error.

It found more than 80 per cent of Labor voters and 62 per cent of CLP voters were opposed to cotton expansion in the Top End, a practice which traditional owners and environmental campaigners have lobbied against due to fears about over-extracting water.

Originally published as August election polling data shows Labor taking a narrow lead