Tom Minear: How Kamala Harris’s headwinds could blow away Anthony Albanese

Kamala Harris’s campaign chiefs were strangely fatalistic about the reasons for her defeat. Tom Minear argues Anthony Albanese is facing similarly perilous circumstances.

The architects of Kamala Harris’s presidential campaign talked for 90 minutes last week about why she lost without spelling out anything they could have done differently.

They had plenty of excuses: reporters asked dumb questions, Donald Trump’s team broke the law co-ordinating with donors, there was no time to meet a popular podcaster. They complained about Ms Harris’s narrow 107-day window to reel in Mr Trump but failed to call out their party’s acquiescence to Joe Biden’s re-election bid that put them in that position.

To many Democrats, the Vice President’s campaign chiefs sounded defensive and arrogant. That was a fair assessment, although they were also strangely fatalistic. “This political environment sucked,” said senior adviser and ex-Obama campaign manager David Plouffe.

He and his colleagues cited “ferocious headwinds” including an unpopular incumbent leader, frustration with inflation, and a widespread sense the country was heading in the wrong direction, up against a controversial but still electable rival focused on projecting strength.

Sound familiar? With less than six months until Australia’s next election, that analysis tracks neatly with the perilous situation Anthony Albanese finds himself in against Peter Dutton.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese talks with Opposition Leader Peter Dutton at the Wishing Tree at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: Tracey Nearmy/AFP

Fresh from ramming a huge chunk of his agenda through parliament, the Prime Minister does not yet seem plagued by the defeatism that gripped Ms Harris’s team. Nevertheless, if he is to retain power with a majority or even a Greens-free minority, he will have to defy a worldwide surge against incumbent governments in an era of painful cost of living increases.

I wrote recently that much of Mr Albanese’s agenda to tackle these concerns was borrowed from the unpopular Biden-Harris administration. The more problematic comparison, however, is that pollsters are finding voters are similarly not aware of his legislative accomplishments.

This is not surprising, given the Prime Minister and the President share a tendency to ramble and an inability to reach so-called low-information voters through non-traditional channels.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese with US Vice President Kamala Harris during a luncheon at the State Department on October 26, 2023 in Washington, DC. Picture: Alex Wong/Getty Images/AFP

Ms Harris and her team tried to overcome this by spending $US1.5bn in 15 weeks, a record sum that only served to limit the nationwide swing towards Mr Trump in the key battleground states. Without these resources, Mr Albanese’s predicament appears even more dire.

Here’s the thing about politics right now: perception is reality. After Mr Trump won, consumer sentiment surged, even though the fundamentals of the US economy remained the same. Casting a ballot against Mr Albanese might not fix anything – but voters may feel better.

Originally published as Tom Minear: How Kamala Harris’s headwinds could blow away Anthony Albanese