The Liberal Party’s federal leadership crisis: What happens next?
THE next few weeks will be chaos. Either a federal election will be called or a new Prime Minister will try to wrangle control of a government in crisis. But first, some key events must take place.
THE next few weeks will be chaos. Either a federal election will be called or a new Liberal Prime Minister will be trying to wrangle back control of a government in crisis.
But the first step will be a leadership spill.
Malcolm Turnbull has refused to allow a challenge until midday tomorrow. He is essentially daring more MPs to sign their names to a petition which calls for a party room meeting to hold the vote.
The petition needs 43 signatures. It doesn’t have that many names yet. MPs are reluctant to put their names to the list and be branded traitors.
LEADERSHIP SPILL — 12PM FRIDAY
In a massive challenge to rival Peter Dutton, Mr Turnbull has declared that he will not call this meeting until he receives legal advice from the Solicitor-General Stephen Donaghue that Mr Dutton is even eligible to sit in Parliament.
Questions were raised over his eligibility after reports Mr Dutton has a financial interest in a child care company that receives federal government subsidies. Mr Dutton has legal advice that insists he’s clear, while Labor has legal advice that he’s gone.
If the party room meeting goes ahead and a spill is called, Malcolm Turnbull will step aside. It’s understood he will back Treasurer Scott Morrison in the challenge against Mr Dutton.
Massive pressure is on the Solicitor-General to provide his legal advice by tomorrow morning. His answer will determine whether a spill even goes ahead.
BY-ELECTION
Regardless of the outcome tomorrow — unless Malcolm Turnbull somehow miraculously remains Prime Minister — 145,949 people in the federal electorate of Wentworth will be headed to the polls, likely within weeks.
Mr Turnbull has declared he will quit politics if he is rolled as Prime Minister, which will automatically trigger a by-election in his NSW seat.
The Liberal Party will need to scramble to find a new candidate for the seat. But, unless there’s a major upset where voters seek to punish the Coalition for its chaos, the Liberal Party will retain the seat.
It’s considered a very safe Liberal seat with a margin of 18.9 per cent.
A by-election can be held anytime 33 days after the writ is issued. The recent Super Saturday by-elections took more than two months to be held after four MPs were punted from Parliament over citizenship issues.
FEDERAL ELECTION
Forget the by-election, all Australians could be headed to the polls within weeks. It could even coincide with the AFL semi-finals or grand final.
The reason is the new Prime Minister may not have a majority in the lower house.
At the moment, Mr Turnbull holds a one-seat majority in the House of Representatives. If he’s rolled, Nationals MP Kevin Hogan has publicly said he will move to the crossbench. Veterans Affairs Minister Darren Chester, another National MP, is also not ruling out going to the crossbench.
If either of them shift and refuse to give the government confidence and supply (meaning their backing if a no-confidence motion is held) then the PM will have lost control of Parliament and will have to call an election.
Other crossbenchers, Cathy McGowan, Rebekha Sharkie, Adam Bandt and Andrew Wilkie, will not give their backing.
If an election is called, the soonest it can be held is on a Saturday at least 33 days. If one is called on Friday or Saturday, it could be held on September 29. More likely, an election could be held in October if the new PM was forced to call one within days of winning power.
It’s understood Labor is already preparing for an election to be called.
NEW POLICIES
A new Prime Minister will have to announce entirely new policies for Australia’s energy market future and for economic management.
Malcolm Turnbull’s National Energy Guarantee was killed off as the catalyst for this leadership crisis. That had been in the works for almost a year. Meanwhile, Australians power prices will continue to rise if nothing is done.
Company tax cuts are also now dead after the PM was forced to admit defeat on that policy yesterday when it was blocked in the Senate. The new PM will need a new plan to drive wage growth and boost jobs.
The budget Scott Morrison announced in May is essentially null and void if new policies are announced. They will need to be costed.
NEW COALITION AGREEMENT
The new PM will need to renegotiate the Coalition agreement with the National Party. And the Nats won’t be too happy the Liberals have all but destroyed their chances of being re-elected if a snap election is called.
Before that, the winner of the leadership spill tomorrow must head to Government House in Canberra to be sworn in.
Governor-General Peter Cosgrove was due to head to Melbourne this week but opted to remain in the nation’s capital just in case a spill occurred.
The new PM will then name a whole new Cabinet. Dutton’s backers who have helped orchestrate the spill are expected to be rewarded with prime positions. Twelve members of Turnbull’s frontbench have resigned this week, aside from Dutton.
It will be interesting to see what Turnbull’s loyal deputies, Julie Bishop and Christopher Pyne do in the wake of a spill.