The Qld seats and candidates to watch this federal election

After David Crisafulli ended Labor’s nine-year grip on power at the state level, the LNP hopes to increase its already huge presence in Queensland at federal level on May 3.

After David Crisafulli ended Labor’s nine-year grip on power at the state level, the LNP will be hoping there is momentum to increase its already huge presence in Queensland at the federal level on May 3.

It holds 21 of the state’s 30 federal seats, against Labor’s five and the Greens’ three.

Even before Mr Crisafulli’s win, Labor looked in trouble after backsliding in last year’s Brisbane City Council election where it only just held on to five out of the 26 wards.

The LNP won 18 (plus the lord mayoralty) and the Greens won just two.

Seats to watch — not least Dutton’s

But after his party was leading in the polls for months, incredibly LNP Opposition Leader Peter Dutton could — at least according to internal Labor and Teal polling — lose his northwest Brisbane seat of Dickson.

At 1.7 per cent, Dickson has the tightest margin in the state. Labor’s Ali France, who has battled the loss of a leg in a horrifying car accident and the death of a teenage son, could benefit from preferences from Climate 200-backed independent Ellie Smith.

Ms Smith has run a well-funded and organised campaign, but courted controversy after revelations she tied herself to a coal power plant in her youth and also equated an anti-coal activist to civil rights leader Rosa Parks.

Climate 200 candidate Ellie Smith is running against Peter Dutton in Dickson. Picture: Liam Kidston

The LNP could also be in trouble in the must-win Cape York-based seat of Leichhardt where hugely popular LNP incumbent Warren Entsch is stepping down.

His replacement, former paramedic and LNP candidateJeremy Neal, has previously blamed feminists for aiding Donald Trump’s election loss, railed against Covid-19 restrictions and vaccines, labelled China a “grub of a country” and his supporters were photographed in MAGA caps.

The LNP meanwhile hopes to unseat the Greens’ Elizabeth Watson-Brown in the affluent western Brisbane seat of Ryan.

Ms Watson-Brown, a former partner in a leading architectural firm, was one-third of the party’s so-called 2022 “Greenslide’’ but is on a tight 2.4 per cent margin.

She is up against a well-funded push from fresh-faced LNP hopeful Maggie Forrest who began actively campaigning last year and has a legion of volunteers supporting her.

Labor’s Rebecca Hack could, however, win the seat on preferences if she can edge past Ms Watson-Brown and take second place on the primary vote count.

Brisbane a wildcard

The LNP and Labor are also vying to wrest the inner-north seat of Brisbane from the Greens’ Stephen Bates and the inner-south seat of Griffith from the Greens’ Max Chandler-Mather.

The high-profile Mr Chandler-Mather, who has campaigned relentlessly on affordable housing and other hip pocket issues, will be a tough adversary and sits on a comfortable margin.

Brisbane is a wildcard, with a tight 3.7 per cent margin and experienced candidates in Labor’s Madonna Jarrett and the LNP’s Trevor Evans, who was defeated in 2022.

Mr Evans, one of the first openly gay MPs in his party, campaigned hard on aircraft noise at the last election.

Greens incumbent Max Chandler-Mather campaigns in the seat of Griffith, Picture: NewsWire/Tertius Pickard

Rely on the ‘Man in the Hat’

So did Mr Bates, but with little real progress on tackling the issue he could be in trouble.

Australia’s longest serving and arguably its most colourful federal politician, Katter’s Australia Party’s Bob Katter, will easily win his northwest seat of Kennedy after holding it since 1993.

Nothing short of a fatal snake bite or a frontal charge from a scrub bull can defeat the “Man In The Hat’’, who sits on a whopping 13.1 per cent margin.

He has been accorded with the rare honour of an official parliamentary portrait for his service to the people of the bush since 1974.

He recently launched his own election beer brand, Patriot.

While the KAP held their three seats in last year’s state election, they fell far short of their goal and will struggle to add seats federally.

But in the event of a minority government Mr Katter wield considerable influence on the cross benches.

Another interesting seat is Moreton, a cosmopolitan inner-south electorate which has been a bellwether over many years, swinging from red to blue and back again since 1944.

Popular Labor MP Graham Perrett is stepping down after 18 years, however Labor’s Julie-Ann Campbell should temper much of the swing usually experienced when a longtime MP retires.

Member for Kennedy Bob Katter is expected to continue his record-setting run. Picture: Evan Morgan

A former Labor state secretary, she is a local mum and has strong party backing.

The Greens’ Remah Naji could play a vital role in the outcome after developing a profile campaigning on homelessness and Palestine.

Whether that helps the LNP’s Henry Swindon or Ms Campbell remains to be seen.

Lilley in Brisbane’s north has been held by Labor since 1998 and Labor incumbent Anika Wells has a healthy margin of about 10 per cent.

She has a high profile as Sports Minister but could see her margin chipped away by the LNP’s Kimberley Washington, who cannot fail to do better than her LNP predecessor Vivian Lobo in 2022.

Mr Lobo spectacularly detonated his chances of winning after wrongly claiming to live in the electorate, later pleading guilty and being fined $1000 by a magistrate.

The seat of Bonner in Brisbane’s east could be interesting this time despite being held by the LNP’s Ross Vasta since 2004 (with a blip in 2007 when Labor claimed it).

The margin is now down to 3.4 per cent and Labor’s Kara Cook, a former Brisbane councillor for the area, is making what she hopes will be her political comeback.

She stepped down from council in 2023 after expanding her family with a third child.

A popular and well-known face in the area, she could cause an upset, particularly as there is a mini-Melbourne Cup field of eight candidates ranging from the Libertarian Party to the Legalise Cannabis Party. Minor party preferences might prove crucial.

Originally published as The Qld seats and candidates to watch this federal election