Teal wave that swept Australia in 2022 fails to hold as Coalition fights back

The independent wave that shocked Australia at the last election didn’t have the same impact this time, with the Liberals fighting back in critical seats.

The Teal wave that swept the nation in 2022 poll has failed to roll on with the Coalition fighting back in critical heartland seats.

Early results showed Simon Holmes a Court’s Climate 200-bankrolled candidates were in the hunt against National Party in the NSW seat of Calare and neck-and-neck against Labor in the ACT seat of Bean.

However Liberals said they were likely to hold the Victorian rural seat of Wannon and feeling confident in the hotly contested upper north shore seat of Bradfield in Sydney.

By 9pm it was clear independents Helen Haines in Victoria, Rebekah Sharkie in SA, Andrew Wilkie in Tasmania and Bob Katter in Queensland would hold their seats.

Member for Kennedy Bob Katter held his seat. Picture: Brendan Radke

Zali Steggall was also set to hold on the north shore seat of Warringah as was Sophie Scamps in Mackellar as was Allegra Spender in Wentworth.

Ahead of Saturday the prospect of a Labor minority government dependent on the Greens the had put the spotlight on their policies.

The party was also hopeful of taking the northern Melbourne seat of Wills off Labor’s Peter Khalil on the back of a helpful redistribution and the Government’s response to the Gaza crisis.

But two hours into the count far from snaring the seat there had been a 5 per cent swing to Labor.

Two of the Greens’ three seats in Queensland were also under threat with Labor saying they were increasingly confident in Brisbane and Griffith.

With almost 10 per cent of the vote counted however the Greens were likely to hold the other Queensland seat, Ryan.

The 2025 campaign also saw the introduction of new minor parties including billionaire Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots, grassroots Muslim-backed movements in the wake of the Israel-Palestine conflict, and Labor defector Fatima Payman establishing a new party Australia’s Voice to contest Senate seats.

However, at 8pm last night it remained too early to tell if the parties, including as Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, would make an impact.

In Victoria, the Liberals were behind in their battle to reclaim the prized electorate of Kooyong from Dr Monique Ryan although the redraw of electoral boundaries had benefited the seat.

Dr Ryan was leading Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer 54.5 per cent to 45.4 per cent on a two-candidate preferred basis following a campaign with 28.4 per cent counted in seat that was likely to be decided by pre-poll and postal votes.

In the Bayside electorate of Goldstein, where the rise of anti-semitism has been a prominent issue amid the large Jewish community, Zoe Daniel had an early swing against her but was tracking ahead of former MP Tim Wilson 53.8 per cent to 46.2 per cent two candidate preferred in the highly anticipated rematch.

In the western Victorian seat of Wannon, senior Liberal Dan Tehan was slightly despite an early swing towards former radio host Alex Dyson.

Zoe Daniel had an early swing against her but was tracking ahead of former MP Tim Wilson. Picture: NewsWire/ Nadir Kinani

While in the rural seat of Monash, Liberal candidate Mary Aldred was ahead in the three cornered contest between independent Deb Leonard and former Liberal MP turned independent Russell Broadbent.

In NSW, Allegra Spender had a large swing towards her leading 59.8 per cent to 40.2 per cent against Ro Knox on two candidate preferred in the inner-Sydney seat of Wentworth.

In the Northern Beaches seat of Mackellar Sophie Scamps was also ahead of Liberal candidate James Brown in the NSW seats of Mackellar.

All eyes were also on Bradfield following the retirement of senior Liberal Paul Fletcher, where second-time Teal candidate Nicolette Boele was ahead of Liberal Gisele Kapterian.

In the Nationals seat of Cowper on the NSW mid-north coast, Pat Conaghan was slightly behind ahead of independent Carolyn Heise but they remained confident.

Ellie Smith at Bald Hills state High School. Picture: Annette Dew

In Queensland, Labor had been concerned that Dickson Teal candidate Ellie Smith would take votes away from Ali France as they pumped resources into Peter Dutton’s own electorate - the state’s most marginal.

The polls had just closed in WA meaning it was too early to tell if Kate Chaney would hold onto the marginal electorate of Curtin, which she held on a slim 1.3 per cent, against Liberal Tom White.

Climate 200, the fundraising arm founded by businessman Simon Holmes a Court, was set to funnel millions of dollars across the campaigns of 35 independent candidates at this year’s election.

One in four lower house seats had a community-backed independent, with the fundraising body supporting eight incumbents, six second or third time challengers, and 20 first time challengers across all states and territories.

More than half of the candidates were contesting Coalition-held seats, with five running against Labor MPs, three against Nationals MPs and three against other independents.

This was significantly more than the 23 independent campaigns the fundraising arm supported at the 2022 election, where almost half were successful after running on platforms calling for greater climate action and integrity in the parliament.

The Teal shockwave at the 2022 election female independents booting six Liberal male MPs in traditional blue-ribbon conservative seats out of the parliament.

Originally published as Teal wave that swept Australia in 2022 fails to hold as Coalition fights back