RedBridge-Accent rolling tracking poll shows Labor claws back ground, as eight seats under threat from Coalition

A new poll has revealed Labor has managed to claw back ground with voters, but there are still eight seats seriously under threat from the Coalition. See the results, have your say.

An interest-rate cut, massive promised spending on Medicare and more than $2 billion to save Whyalla have helped Labor claw back ground in critical marginal seats.

With a week to go until Anthony Albanese is expected to call an election for April 12, the second RedBridge-Accent rolling tracking poll has found the Coalition’s lead in 20 marginal seats has been slashed in the past fortnight from 52 per cent to 50.5 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

But Labor’s predicament in Victoria remains diabolic with up to eight Labor seats at threat to the Coalition.

The movement toward the government followed the Reserve Bank’s interest rate cut almost two weeks ago – the first since 2020 – Mr Albanese’s pledge of $8.5 billion to make most GP visits free, and $2.4 billion to keep the Whyalla Steelworks open.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has had a bump in the polls but has a way to go. Picture: ABC

On the back of this news, the poll recorded an improvement in Australians’ optimism about the future with the percentage saying they think the country is generally going in the right direction jumping from 27 per cent to 33 per cent while the pessimists fell from 55 per cent to 50 per cent.

Since the last election there has been an average swing of 1.5 per cent two-party-preferred to the Coalition across the seats polled.

As well as a drop in its vote share, the Coalition also saw a weakening of the commitment of people saying they are planning on voting for it.

In the first track poll earlier this month 69 per cent of Coalition voters said they were certain to vote for it.

But in the past two weeks this has dropped to 61 per cent while the rock-solid Labor vote increased slightly from 45 per cent to 47 per cent.

In another good sign for Labor, during that period Mr Albanese has grown less unpopular with marginal seat voters.

The Reserve Bank cut interest rates almost two weeks ago – the first since 2020. Picture: NewsWire / Gaye Gerard

While his net-favourability rating – a number generated by subtracting those who have a negative view of him from those who view him favourably – is still in negative territory at -11 it has improved five points from the -16 he was on two weeks ago.

In contrast Mr Dutton’s net-favourability has deteriorated slightly from -11 to -13 which is still better than the PM’s.

However the Opposition leader has healthy leads over the PM on the question of an economic plan for Australia, leadership strength, shared values and the capacity to inspire hope.

The Coalition also maintains decent margins when people are asked to judge the parties’ performances on issues they care about, especially cost-of-living, housing, the economy and crime and public safety.

But in the wake of last Sunday’s Medicare announcement Labor got a 22 point bounce in its net-favourability health rating and is now only one point behind the Coalition.

The interest rate cut has also helped the Government with 19 per cent of all voters and 35 per cent of Labor voters saying it makes them more likely to vote Labor.

The move appears to have had more impact on the voting intentions of women – 22 per cent of whom said it would make them more likely to vote Labor – compared with 15 per cent of men.

Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton still has a fight on his hands to win the eleciton and avoid a minority government. Picture: NewsWire / John Gass

Overall however a clear majority – 65 per cent – of voters said it would make no difference to whether they voted for the Government.

Asked if they had heard something in the past week which had changed feelings about Mr Albanese and Mr Dutton for better or worse, 9 per cent said they had that made them think more favourably of the PM compared with 6 per cent in the first track.

Positive news cited by voters included the interest rate cut, the assistance to Whyalla and the PM’s appearance on the Abbie Chatfield podcast.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese talks with Abbie Chatfield on her podcast.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visiting workers at Whyalla Steelworks in South Australia. Picture: NewsWire / Tim Joy

Other voters said hearing about Mr Albanese planning his wedding made them think less well of him.

On the other hand only 7 per cent said they had heard something that improved their view of the Opposition Leader.

Peter Dutton’s 60 Minutes Australia interview with Karl Stefanovic. Picture: Channel 9

Positive news for Mr Dutton included his appearance on 60 Minutes, his ‘calling out’ US President Donald Trump and his strong stand on anti-Semitism.

Negative stories included his promise to cut 36,000 jobs from the federal payroll, his lack of policies and his closeness to President Trump.

Across the five Victorian seats included in the track – Aston, Casey, Chisholm, Corangamite and Menzies – Labor’s two-party-preferred vote in 2022 was 51.4 per cent which in this track has shrunk to 43 per cent – a swing of almost 8.5 per cent.

If this were to be replicated across the state Labor would lose five seats while another three would be lineball.

The Coalition needs to win 20 seats for a majority.

Accent’s Dr Shaun Ratcliff said Labor’s vote appeared to have improved since the first wave but its vote remains soft, so any gains could be temporary.

“This change is within the margin of error, but we and no doubt both campaigns will be looking to see if this trend continues in the weeks ahead,” he said.

RedBridge’s Kos Samaras said the results showed cost of living, housing and the economy are still the issues that voters care about the most.

“If we look at an electoral map of Australia, there are green pastures in Western Australia for Labor but they are going to confront a great big bomb crater in Victoria and a mine field in NSW,” he said.

His colleague Tony Barry agreed Victoria was shaping as the key battleground state.

“All of our research shows that voters are in the market for a credible economic plan that offers some hope,” he said.

“Peter Dutton has an 18-point lead over Anthony Albanese on the contest of economic plan and vision for Australia, but the Coalition has to leverage this attribute lead.”

Originally published as RedBridge-Accent rolling tracking poll shows Labor claws back ground, as eight seats under threat from Coalition