Question now isn’t can Dutton win majority, it’s can he win his job

If the polls are right, even a Dutton minority government looks beyond reach. Now it’s about how many seats he needs to win if he is to keep his post, writes James Campbell. VOTE NOW

AT the start of the year the four possible results for this election were: Coalition majority, Coalition minority, Labor minority and Labor majority.

At the time, the polls gave Anthony Albanese no chance of getting back in his own right but he was a decent show to govern in minority.

But back then, they also suggested Peter Dutton could do well enough to give himself a chance of negotiating a minority government with Bob Katter, Rebekha Sharkie and Allegra Spender mentioned as possible dance partners.

And though it would have been a big ask, if the trend had kept moving in the Opposition Leader’s direction, it was not beyond the dreams of possibility that he might even make it to a wafer-thin majority.

It’s clear now that unless the polls are all wrong, at the moment that just isn’t going to happen.

Indeed if this analysis is close to right, a Dutton minority looks to be beyond reach as well.

Unsurprisingly the conversation is already turning to how many seats Dutton needs to win if he is to keep his job.

There’s no hard and fast rule here but you’d think in normal circumstances he would need to make a net gain of at least ten seats to be considered safe for now.

These aren’t normal circumstances, however, because though it looks extremely unlikely Dutton can win, there are a range of outcomes on the other side that look very different for Labor.

They of course will be praying for a majority, which isn’t happening at the moment either – but it’s close and if the polls keep going in the same direction they might just get there.

The key to this is Victoria where federal Labor needs to find a way to separate itself from Jacinta Allan and her toxic government.

Otherwise we are in minority territory but as Albo will be acutely aware, there are minorities and minorities.

A minority where he has to rely on those nice Teal ladies from the nicer suburbs, probably wouldn’t feel that different.

Indeed, listening to Monique Ryan reeling off ALP minister’s attack lines, on Insiders last Sunday it was hard not to think her campaign slogan should be “I can’t believe it’s not Labor!”

But if the PM has to rely on the Greens, well that would be a disaster for Labor, because as he well knows, they will act as wreckers.

It might be a dull campaign but this analysis suggests the outcome could be all too interesting.

Originally published as Question now isn’t can Dutton win majority, it’s can he win his job