Opinion polls: Pyne sitting pretty in Sturt, Briggs on the edge in Mayo

SENIOR Liberal Christopher Pyne sits safe in his seat of Sturt but former minister Jamie Briggs is set to be defeated by the Nick Xenophon Team, exclusive opinion polls show. SEE THE FIGURES

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THE Nick Xenophon Team is set to oust former junior minister Jamie Briggs from the Liberal stronghold of Mayo with an extraordinary primary vote of 38 per cent, Newspoll shows.

A Galaxy poll, however, shows his colleague, Industry Minister Christopher Pyne, will sweep to victory despite some initial nervousness that NXT could also unseat him.

That poll, taken exclusively for The Advertiser, shows Mr Pyne — a Cabinet Minister and South Australia’s most senior Liberal — on a safe 58 per cent two-party preferred vote. Mr Pyne has campaigned strongly as the admiral who has “delivered” the Future Submarines program for SA.

The exclusive Newspoll in The Weekend Australian shows that Mr Briggs’s primary vote has crashed from 53.8 per cent at the 2013 election to 42, putting NXT candidate Rebekha Sharkie in a winning position after preferences with a vote of 52 to 48.

Mayo stretches from the Adelaide Hills through the Fleurieu and over to Victor Harbor. It has been held by the Liberal Party since its creation in 1984 and it was considered safe until Mr Briggs was forced to quit the ministry after “inappropriate” behaviour towards a young female staffer in a Hong Kong nightclub.

What the poll shows for Mayo

That incident came not long after Mr Briggs suffered the indignity of turning up at Parliament in a wheelchair after trying to crash-tackle former PM Tony Abbott at a rowdy gathering after Malcolm Turnbull toppled Mr Abbott.

The Newspoll survey of 501 voters, taken from Monday to Wednesday, shows the current 12.51 per cent margin has been wiped out by a 14.5 per cent swing against the Government. Ms Sharkie’s primary vote is 38 per cent, one of the highest in living memory and a stunning upset with just two weeks until the July 2 election.

That eclipses the Labor vote, which has tumbled from 21.1 to just 9, and is creeping up on the Liberal vote, which is 42.

If the preferences flow as expected, she should win comfortably. However, those flows are not entirely predictable.

Both Labor and Liberal how-to-vote cards give the voter two options: one that preferences the other major party over NXT, and another which preferences NXT over the other major party.

Ms Sharkie is running an open ticket, meaning she is not directing her followers where to put their second preference.

It is possible that all parties could change their how-to-vote cards between now and the double dissolution election, meaning Labor could still strike a deal with NXT to guarantee Mr Briggs’s defeat.

The Advertiser’s Galaxy Research poll shows that Mr Pyne has taken a small hit, with his primary vote down from 54.4 per cent to 50 per cent. Labor has taken a larger hit, with their primary vote shrinking from 28.9 to 17, putting NXT ahead of them on 21.

What the poll shows for Sturt

Almost 600 Sturt voters were surveyed on Wednesday. Galaxy Research also asked them how the Government’s decision to build the $50 billion Future Submarines in Adelaide affected their vote.

While 31 per cent of respondents said it made them “more likely to vote Liberal”, 55 per cent said it didn’t influence their vote and 11 per cent said it made them “less likely to vote Liberal”.

Pollster David Briggs said Mr Pyne was “staving off a spirited challenge”. “The ... decision to build the next generation of submarines in SA has helped limit the loss,” he said, adding Mr Pyne might be able to “fall over the line” without preferences.

“This represents a swing away from the Government of just 2.1 per cent since the last election,” Mr Briggs said.

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ANALYSIS

Time to take a seat, we’re getting to the interesting bit

By Tory Shepherd

HELLO? Are you only just tuning in?

This election campaign has been like winter; it’s difficult and yet immensely pleasant to imagine a time when we are not in it.

Having said that, we’re just getting to the interesting bit.

The most important bit will be when we finally have as much detail as we’re going to get. When theoretically we can sit the parties side by side and try to nut out which are the best policies.

Before too long, we’ll have better costings, and more idea about how our future lives might look under a Coalition or a Labor government. All that data that goes into helping us decide which box we will bestow with that valuable little “1” come July 2.

For many, right now, it’s still too broadbrush. Too much information, as the kids say.

That generic information overload is particularly true for the opinion polls.

They represent an accretion of knowledge about what voters (i.e. you) want, which in turn influences what the parties promise. But they are of limited use until you can find out what they mean for you, for your electorate. Now that’s the most interesting bit.

You’ll have seen the oft-used phrase about opinion polls: “If replicated nationally…”. Thing is, they never, ever are.

A 50/50 result nationally is “neck and neck”, but on the ground at this election a different race is being run in every one of the 150 electorates, and for each of the 76 Senate positions.

So while it’s the policy that’s important, it’s the individual seats that are interesting.

In Mayo and Sturt, seats held by two of our most prominent Liberal MPs, the “safe” margins are broadly the same. But the outcomes are looking vastly different.

Mayo MP Jamie Briggs is staring down the barrel of an ignominious defeat by the upstart Nick Xenophon Team.

Sturt MP Christopher Pyne has used his high-calibre firepower to see off the NXT threat.

The July 2 battle will be seat by seat. Labor needs to win 21 of those.

They say politics is local. It is local, and it is personal, and that’s how this election will be won or lost.

Originally published as Opinion polls: Pyne sitting pretty in Sturt, Briggs on the edge in Mayo