Nick Xenophon Team makes South Australia a key federal election 2016 battleground

BILLIONS of dollars are being pumped into South Australia as the state becomes a critical electoral battleground for the first time in almost a decade.

• How the election could give Mr X even more power
• Xenophon ditches threat to hand preferences to Labor
• The policy issues that will win — and lose — votes

BILLIONS of dollars are being pumped into South Australia as the state becomes a critical electoral battleground for the first time in almost a decade.

Nervousness about pivotal Senator Nick Xenophon’s fledgling party’s assault on lower house seats helped spur the Federal Government’s $50 billion decision, announced late last month, to build 12 future submarines in Adelaide.

Some of SA’s 11 seats are no longer two-horse races between the major parties but the extent of the Nick Xenophon Team’s voter support and electoral chances are unclear.

Various opinion polls put the party’s lower house backing in double digits and some indicate it has about 20 per cent statewide support.

This has plunged SA’s lower house results into uncertainty and thrust the state into the national political spotlight as a key battleground, as it was for much of the past decade when it had five marginal seats.

SA Senator Nick Xenophon with campaign director Nick Xenophon Team candidate Stirling Griff. Picture: Bianca De Marchi

The potential for the three-way contests to take previously safe seats to preferences, making results unpredictable, has been a key driver behind the future submarine and frigate construction programs — together worth more than $85 billion — announced for ASC’s Osborne shipyard.

SA’s most senior Liberal, Industry Minister Christopher Pyne, spearheaded the Coalition charge by wielding significant influence in Cabinet to argue for an Adelaide submarine build.

Senator Xenophon had vowed to preference against the Liberals in key seats if all 12 submarines were not Adelaide-built and Mr Pyne’s eastern suburbs seat of Sturt has been considered at risk, despite a 10.1 per cent margin.

Senior Liberals said they were now more comfortable about Mr Pyne’s chances against NXT candidate Matthew Wright and Labor’s Matthew Loader.

But the Liberals are concerned about their prospects in SA’s most marginal seat, Hindmarsh, held by Matt Williams with a 1.9 per cent margin.

He is facing Labor’s Steve Georganas, who won the traditionally knife-edge seat from Liberal Chris Gallus in 2004 and held it until 2013. This gives him some of the profile benefits traditionally enjoyed by the incumbent MP.

But Mr Williams is buoyed by the attention lavished upon him by the submarine announcement and by appearances in his electorate by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull during a three-day Adelaide visit in March.

The Adelaide Hills, Fleurieu Peninsula and Kangaroo Island seat of Mayo has been held by the Liberals since it was created in 1984. But Jamie Briggs, forced out of the ministry last December after a boozy Hong Kong incident with a female government official, is facing a threat from his former staffer, NXT candidate Rebekha Sharkie.

Interest in this seat is heightened by the close-fought challenge from a third party in Mayo in 1998, when Mr Briggs’ predecessor, Alexander Downer, fended off Australian Democrat and Redgum frontman John Schumann.

Labor holds five seats by safe margins but these are not immune from a well-fought campaign. There has been some speculation ALP national president and Port Adelaide MP Mark Butler last month raised concerns about state health reforms affecting the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in a bid to safeguard himself from the NXT threat.

The major election battlegrounds

EDEN-MONARO, NSW

The famous “Bellwether’’ seat in southern NSW stretches from the south coast to the Snowy Mountains, then down to the Victorian border. It has been captured or held by the government party at every election since 1969. Labor’s Mike Kelly, who lost the seat to Peter Hendy in 2013, is running again.

HELD BY: Liberal

SITTING MP: Peter Hendy

MARGIN: 2.5%

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: Mike Kelly (Labor)

LINDSAY, NSW

One of the Sydney western suburbs electorates that NSW Labor and Liberal strategists believe determine the outcomes of federal elections. Lindsay voters have backed the winning party at every election since 1984.

HELD BY: Liberals

SITTING MP: Fiona Scott

MARGIN: 3%

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: Emma Husar

NEW ENGLAND, NSW

On paper, the northern NSW seat is one of the safest Coalition seats in Australia. But former independent MP Tony Windsor has decided to come out of retirement to challenge Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce and harness community concern over local issues such as mining.

HELD BY: The Nationals

SITTING MP: Barnaby Joyce

MARGIN: 20.1% (against Labor)

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: Tony Windsor (Independent)

CORANGAMITE, VIC

Former TV journalist Sarah Henderson is being pitted against former newspaper reporter Libby Coker in this provincial seat based on the southern suburbs of Geelong and nearby coastal and agricultural areas. Ms Henderson captured the seat in 2013 after it had been held by Labor for two terms.

HELD BY: Liberal

SITTING MP: Sarah Henderson

MARGIN: 4%

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: Libby Coker

INDI, VIC

HELD BY: Independent

The battle for the Wodonga-based seat in northern Victoria is already one of the most closely watched around the country. Independent Cathy McGowan defeated high-profile Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella in 2013. Ms Mirabella wants the seat back and recently suggested the electorate might have missed out on a hospital upgrade because it has an independent MP.

SITTING MP: Cathy McGowan

MARGIN: 0.3%

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: Sophie Mirabella (Liberal)

CAPRICORNIA, QLD

Big mining and agricultural seat in central Queensland which includes the city of Rockhampton. The end of the mining boom may make it difficult for first-term LNP MP Michelle Landry to hang on.

HELD BY: Liberal National Party

SITTING MP: Michelle Landry

MARGIN: 0.8%

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: Leisa Neaton

BRISBANE, QLD

The inner Brisbane seat has switched between the Labor and LNP parties four times since the 1970s. The retirement of popular MP Teresa Gambaro puts the seat into play. Major issues include jobs and the cost of living.

HELD BY: Liberal National Party

SITTING MP: Teresa Gambaro (retiring)

LNP CANDIDATE: Trevor Evans

MARGIN: 4.3%

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: Pat O’Neill

LYONS, TAS

The big country seat takes up almost half of Tasmania. In 2013 Liberal Eric Hutchinson snatched the seat from popular Labor member Dick Adams who had been local MP for 20 years. Labor is keen to get it back.

HELD BY: Liberals

SITTING MP: ERIC HUTCHINSON

MARGIN: 1.3%

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: Brian Mitchell (Labor)

COWAN, WA

HELD BY: Liberals

SITTING MP Luke Simpkins

MARGIN 3.9%

OPPOSITION CANDIDATE: Anne Aly

A redistribution has boosted Labor’s chance of winning the seat in northern Perth. Former army major Luke Simpkins is being challenged by high-profile Muslim anti-terrorism expert Anne Aly.

HINDMARSH, SA see opposite

MAYO, SA (see opposite)