New poll reveals Greens are facing a federal election wipeout

The heat is on ALP preference deals as a new poll shows the Greens are likely to lose at least two seats at the federal election.

The Greens are on track to lose two of their three Queensland seats to the LNP while the third is too close to call, a new poll has found.

With most polls showing the increasing likelihood a re-elected Albanese Government will need to rely on Greens support, a drop in the party’s primary vote in its inner-city heartland means it could be left with its leader Adam Bandt as its sole MP in the lower house.

But in a blow to the Government, the poll shows Labor MP Josh Burns has been pushed into third place behind the Liberals and Greens in his seat of Macnamara in Victoria.

The danger that Labor preferences in Macnamara, which has a large number of Jewish voters, could elect a Green MP, will pile pressure on Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to put the party last on Labor’s how-to-vote card there.

In addition to revealing a collapse in the Greens primary vote, the poll shows the party will fail in its bid to unseat Labor in its primary target seat of Wills in Melbourne’s north.

Commissioned by right-wing activist group Advance, the poll by pollster Insightfully of roughly 600 voters in each of the seats of Brisbane, Ryan and Griffith in Queensland – which are held by the Greens – as well the Victorian seats of Wills, Macnamara, and Melbourne, which is held by Mr Bandt.

Queensland Greens Max Chandler-Mather MP for Griffith, Elizabeth Watson-Brown MP for Ryan and Stephen Bates MP for Brisbane at Parliament House, Canberra. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Martin Ollman

In Brisbane which was lost by LNP MP Trevor Evans to the Greens Stephen Bates in 2022 the Greens primary vote has dropped from 27.2 per cent to 18.1 per cent which will be enough to turn a 53.7 per cent Green’s majority into a 53 per cent margin for Mr Evans who is standing again.

In the next door seat of Ryan where barrister Maggie Forrest is seeking to unseat the Greens’ Elizabeth Watson-Brown, a 2.8 per cent drop in her primary vote and 1.1 per cent increase in the LNP’s primary will be enough to flip the seat to Ms Forrest.

Meanwhile the poll has found Griffith, the seat lost by Labor front bencher Terri Butler to the Greens Max Chandler-Mather, is too close to call, but a 6.3 per cent drop in the ALP’s primary and 7.9 per cent jump to the LNP means that if Mr Chandler loses it will most likely to be to the conservatives.

Leader of the Australian Greens Adam Bandt. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Mr Bandt’s seat of Melbourne was almost unchanged with the Green leader increasing his primary vote to a massive 50.1 per cent while Labor’s primary in a seat that was once its heartland continues to plummet and at 19.2 per cent is only 2.4 per cent behind the Liberals.

The adjacent seat of Wills, where Labor MP Peter Khalil is trying to hold off former state Greens leader Samantha Ratnam, was the only seat in the poll where the Greens increased, on the back of redrawn boundaries and their candidate’s high name recognition.

But despite 4.8 per cent jump in the Greens primary the poll predicts that despite a small drop in his primary vote, Liberal and minor party preferences have hardened against Greens and Mr Khalil will hold on 53.7 per cent to 46.3 per cent on a two-party preferred basis.

That however is the only good news for Labor in this poll because in the south-eastern Melbourne seat of Macnamara, a massive surge in the Liberal vote has pushed Mr Burns into third place behind the Greens.

In 2022 the Liberals only got 29 per cent in Macnamara while Mr Burns got 31.8 and the Greens 29.6 per cent.

But in the wake of the surge in anti-Semitic attacks on the Jewish community and the deterioration in Australia’s relations with Israel since 2023, the positions have been reversed.

Greens MP Elizabeth Watson-Brown at Kangaroo Point. Picture Lachie Millard

According to Insightfully, if an election were held now the Liberals would get 37.6 per cent, the Greens 27.9 per cent and Mr Burns 25.9 per cent.

A spokesman for Advance said the group had been relentless in its attack on the Greens since launching its anti-Greens campaign nearly a year ago.

“The research shows what we know to be true – the Greens are not who they used to be and the voters know it. We will be urging all voters to put the Greens last and if the Labor Party was serious about the economy, about national security, and about social cohesion they would have every Labor voter put the Greens last,” he said.

Originally published as New poll reveals Greens are facing a federal election wipeout