Campaign Confidential: Little moments that lose elections

In our first Campaign Confidential column, we look at whether Albo’s other blunder will cost him the election. Plus the latest betting odds, and what ScoMo and Albo really have in common.

Kicking off our new daily column Campaign Confidential, we look at what it means if Albo’s already lost the election on day one.

Albo’s day one from hell

The handshake that swung an election: Prime Minister John Howard and Opposition Leader Mark Latham cross paths in a radio station in Sydney. Picture: John Feder

It was a bad first day for Albo, who was stumped when asked about the official cash rate, gave the wrong answer when quizzed on the unemployment rate, and was later forced to admit his time as Acting Prime Minister was just a few days, after earlier touting his experience in the role. (News Corp’s Ashleigh Gleeson calculated he was only ever Acting PM for two days at a time, and all for a grand total of 61 hours.) But were these election-losing missteps, on a par with John Hewson failing to explain his GST policy in 1993 (the infamous “birthday cake interview”), or Mark Latham giving John Howard the handshake of death in 2004? Time will tell of course. It’s worth noting that Hewson’s big blunder came ten days out from the election, and Latham’s shocker was right on the eve of voting day. If Albo’s day one from hell proves to be the moment he lost the unlosable election … we’re in for a long six weeks.

First to fall

The campaign’s in full swing, which means it’s probably only a matter of hours before the first candidate gets dumped. In 2019 there were 15 political aspirants who were disendorsed by their parties, including six after the cut-off date to get them replaced. (Three Libs; two Labor; one from One Nation.) Who’s gonna be first to fall this time? Unfortunately the betting markets – usually an oracle about what everyone is thinking – provide no pointers. A spokesperson for Sportsbet told Campaign Confidential: “Due to the sensitivities with political members etc, we simply can’t frame a market on that.” Fair enough. We’re watching and waiting. And yes, we’re salivating.

The odds on Opposition

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg at an event in Melbourne last week. According to the punters, he could be our next Opposition Leader. Picture : NCA NewsWire / Nicki Connolly

Speaking of the betting markets, while they’re offering odds on a huge range of contests, one of the most intriguing is the question of who will next land Australia’s most suckworthy job: Opposition Leader. Josh Frydenberg has the shortest odds on Sportsbet, at $2.75, with Peter Dutton just behind at $3. Tanya Plibersek is the most favoured on the Labor side, paying $3.25, while the longest odds on offer are for Alex Hawke, at $101. The prospect of Hawke leading the Liberals may seem unlikely, but let’s remember – this is Australian politics, where absolutely anything can happen.

Climate club

Climate 200 founder Simon Holmes a Court. Picture: Aaron Francis

They claim they are not a political party – critics would disagree – but the list of independent candidates officially backed by Climate 200 is definitely growing, with some 20 hopefuls now benefiting from climate cash. The organisation is now officially supporting Jo Dyer’s quest to win Boothby, and Alex Dyson’s campaign in Wannon. Two interesting omissions on the Climate 200 website though: there’s no mention of support for Zali Steggall in Warringah or Helen Haines in Indi.

“We’ve yet to get an application [for funding] from Zali,” Climate 200’s Simon Holmes a Court told Campaign Confidential. “We’d welcome one. We think it’s likely that we will.”

The winner is... Sydney

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese. Whatever happens, we’re getting a Sydneysider after the election. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

Whatever happens come May 21, one thing’s certain: the person occupying the Lodge for the next three years will be a Sydneysider. This continues a long tradition: the last time a Sydneysider wasn’t contesting the prime ministership at a general election was 1984, when the Colt from Kooyong (Andrew Peacock) took on the Silver Bodgie, and fellow Melburnian, Bob Hawke. And the last time we had two Sydneysiders slugging it out for the Lodge was in 2004, when Howard was up against Latham. And for those keeping score, New South Wales has so far provided 13 and a half of Australia’s 32 prime ministers (Billy Hughes only rates as a half because he represented two states, the ol’ pirate), Victoria has given us 12 and a half, Queensland has supplied four, and Western Australia and Tassie have fielded one apiece. South Australia, the Northern Territory and the ACT have yet to score. Maybe something to consider for 2025? Just sayin’.

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Originally published as Campaign Confidential: Little moments that lose elections