Labor gunning for three SA Senate spots in the 2022 federal election

A shock new poll reveals the Liberals are at risk of their worst result in decades in a key election race with major implications for the next parliament.

Labor is poised to win three South Australian Senate seats for the first time in nearly two decades, putting the Coalition in major peril in the upper house, new polling shows.

Internal party polling obtained by The Advertiser predicts Labor will easily sweep two Senate spots with 34 per cent of the primary vote, and would be a strong chance to secure a third after preferences are divided.

With 23 per cent of the vote, the Liberals will retain Finance Minister Simon Birmingham’s spot, but Senator Andrew McLachlan is at risk of losing his seat to Labor riding the wave of Premier Peter Malinauskas’s emphatic state election victory in March.

The poll predicts Senator McLachlan would be at the mercy of at least 18 rounds of preferences.

In the Liberals’ worst case scenario, it would be left with four SA senators to Labor’s five, which would include Spark International College boss Trimann Gill.

Labor Senate leader Penny Wong said she didn’t “pay too much heed” to the polls.

“But travelling around, you get the clear sense that South Australians have figured this bloke (Scott Morrison) out,” she said.

Finance Minister Simon Birmingham said voters had “a lot of cynicism” about polls, and attacked Labor leader Anthony Albanese’s “fumbles and stumbles” on economic figures.

Penny Wong speaks to supporters at Clifton Springs pre polling in Victoria. Picture: Alison Wynd

SA Senator Don Farrell with Labor Senate candidate Trimann Gill. Picture: Facebook

Polling at 12 per cent, Greens candidate Barbara Pocock is expected to win one of the six Senate spots up for grabs in Saturday’s election.

Independent Senator Rex Patrick is facing a disastrous result with just 3 per cent of support, putting his former ally Nick Xenophon on a collision course with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation Party for the sixth upper house seat.

Mr Xenophon is commanding 6 per cent of first preference support while One Nation’s Jennifer Game has 4 per cent.

But Mr Xenophon’s chances have been stunted as his name does not appear above the line on the ballot paper. Instead, he is represented with the letter ‘O’, potentially causing major confusion among voters.

“This is crunch time,” he said, warning against a Queensland-based party that he claimed “trades in fear”.

The poll all but spells the end of Senator Stirling Griff’s career, who is running in the second spot on Mr Xenophon’s Senate ticket.

Nick Xenophon has a chance of getting back into the Senate, but a ballot paper quirk might cost him. Picture: Brenton Edwards

Though he is second on Labor’s SA Senate ticket, Don Farrell has been front-and-centre for the local campaign. Picture: Alison Wynd

The last time Labor won three Senate seats at a regular federal election was in 2004, when the Liberals won the other three. Mr Xenophon and Sarah Hanson-Young of the Greens then crumpled support for the two major parties at the 2007 election, winning a spot each.

Labor won three spots in 2016’s double dissolution election.

Labor has been running an aggressive Senate strategy, thrusting Senator Don Farrell onto the campaign front lines in SA.

A separate Australia Institute poll also predicted Labor was a strong chance at securing three SA Senate seats with 36 per cent of the primary vote versus the Liberals’ 28 per cent.

The internal party polling of 644 voters was conducted by Lonergan Research. Unlike many other election polls, respondents could choose from all 22 parties and groups running in the election.

A recent YouGov poll predicted Labor would win the election with 80 lower house seats.

New Roy Morgan polling shows Labor extending its lead with 57 per cent of two party-preferred support.

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