Joe Hildebrand: Why the 2025 Federal Election is so important

Australian politics is chaotic and dysfunctional. This federal election is already historic before it has already begun, argues Joe Hildebrand. Here’s why.

This election is already historic before it has even begun.

Anthony Albanese is the only first-term Prime Minister this century to go to the polls having served a full term in office.

That in itself is a vital reminder of just how chaotic and dysfunctional Australian politics has been for the past two decades.

The last first-term prime minister to serve a full term and go to the polls was John Winston Howard in 1998. A third of Australians weren’t even born then.

That alone tells you something about Albanese’s leadership style; why he is careful and cautious to the point of frustration for his friends and enemies alike. He is a manager more than a reformer, a steady hand at the wheel.

■ Everything you need to know about 2025 election

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Picture: NewsWire / David Geraghty

The problem is that while Albo might be calm as a koi pond, the world around him is not.

Despite the long-awaited interest rate cut in February and some cost of living relief in the Budget, the vast majority of Australians are still hard up against it economically.

Meanwhile community tensions are bubbling over the Israel-Palestine conflict — which will be a lightning rod of contention in several key seats — and Donald Trump has declared a trade war against the world.

This means that the PM has to be more than calm and reassuring: He must be strong and he must be seen to be strong.

Peter Dutton, by contrast, has built his political reputation as a hard man. He took a gamble on standing firmly against the Indigenous Voice to parliament and dealt Albanese a humiliating blow at the referendum.

Over the 12 months since that result the massive backlash against woke politics both here and all over the world provided the perfect wave for Dutton to ride and Trump’s incredible White House comeback seemed to vindicate Dutton’s quasi-Trumpian image.

Liberal leader Peter Dutton. Picture: NewsWire / Luis Enrique Ascui

But all waves eventually crash and while Dutton ended 2024 on a high and Albo with a horror show, the momentum appears to have shifted since then.

Now that Trump is seen more as an enemy of Australia — or at least no friend — many soft voters, especially women, are incredibly wary of importing anything that resembles Trump-style politics in Australia.

Meanwhile Dutton’s core support base on the right is urging him to be even more populist and strident — ie. Trump-like — lest he be seen to stand for nothing.

Dutton is smart enough to know that he cannot shift too much in either direction without ostracising either group he needs to win, and thus he has been somewhat immobilised.

His petrol tax cut has good solid cut through, but it came in response to the ALP’s own suite of tax cuts which will put more money in the pockets of more people.

As a result the momentum seems to be back with Labor at the opening of the campaign, and in an election momentum is everything.

Originally published as Joe Hildebrand: Why the 2025 Federal Election is so important