Federal election 2022: Which key seats Albanese, Morrison must win
The Prime Minister is fighting for his political life in the suburbs across Australia while for Anthony Albanese the path to power starts in WA and stretches to defending a key NSW coal region.
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Win Parramatta, save Chisholm and stay well away from the so-called Teal seats and Scott Morrison takes a big step toward keeping the Lodge.
The Prime Minister is fighting for his political life in the suburbs of Australia and ghosting the inner city electorates where his moderate MPs are under threat from Climate 200-backed candidates, an analysis of nearly a month of the campaign trail shows.
For Anthony Albanese, the path to power starts in WA, includes inner city Brisbane and Cairns, as well as defending the Hunter Valley.
But the Labor leader has given up on winning back central Queensland which rejected Bill Shorten in 2019.
To secure the 76 seats required to form majority government Labor must hold everything it has and gain seven more, while the Liberals must pick up at least one seat to counter a redistribution but will need more to offset other expected losses.
THE BATTLEGROUND SEATS
Both parties have a large swath of electorates they need to attack, and also defend in NSW, which has made the state the most-visited so far on the campaign.
Mr Morrison has been to the Labor-held Sydney seat of Parramatta a whopping five times in four weeks hoping to chip away the 3.5 per cent margin.
He’s also identified the south coast seat of Gilmore as a potential gain, making it his first visit of the campaign.
Mr Albanese has visited both NSW seats to help his candidates.
Labor’s campaign bus has also rolled into the Liberal-held Sydney seat of Bennelong, where it hopes to make gains – but does not expect to outright win – the electorate where popular MP and tennis champion John Alexander is retiring.
Early in the campaign Mr Albanese did two events to sandbag the Hunter, while Mr Morrison has left the attack in this coalmining seat to the Nationals.
Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce has spent a significant amount of time in the Hunter Valley, as well as central and north Queensland, and regional Victoria.
Both major party leaders have visited Leichardt twice, but the far north Queensland Liberal seat on a 4.6 per cent margin is not expected to fall.
The Liberals are on the defensive in the Victorian eastern suburbs seat of Chisholm, where Mr Morrison has made three visits to save Liberal MP Gladys Liu – compared to Mr Albanese’s two.
Although Mr Albanese spent a week in isolation with Covid, the prime minister has held more than double the number of events – 11 – in the state.
He is also on the offensive in the Labor-held seats of Corangamite and McEwan, which Mr Albanese has not visited, but the party is not worried about.
Northern Tasmania has been a big focus of Mr Morrison’s campaign, where he hopes to hold Braddon and Bass, as well as pick up Lyons.
Mr Albanese has also held multiple events in the three electorates, with Labor strategists not expecting to lose Lyons.
Both leaders have attended four events each in Western Australia, which poses logistical challenges because of its isolation from other cities.
Labor had its campaign launch there, attempting to piggyback off the popularity of Premier Mark McGowan, while leveraging the anger felt towards Mr Morrison during the pandemic.
Mr Albanese’s camp are hopeful they will pick up Swan, and place former Attorney-General Christian Porter’s seat of Pearce as the next likely gain. They’re also aiming for Hasluck, but this is considered less likely.
Mr Morrison travelled to Perth again on Thursday evening to continue sandbagging the Liberal-held seats.
Other seats visited by both parties that are still in play include: Lingiari in the Northern Territory and Robertson on the NSW central coast.
TOO CLOSE TO CALL
South Australia’s only marginal seat Boothby is a major worry for the Liberals, with Labor confident about the gain though not considering it a done deal.
Mr Morrison is putting the work in on the ground, attending three events in the electorate held by retiring Liberal MP Nicolle Flint.
Mr Albanese is yet to visit the seat, relying on senior frontbenchers Penny Wong and Mark Butler to drive support off the back of a Labor winning the March state election in a landslide.
A fierce local battle is erupting in the Liberal-held marginal seat of Reid in Sydney’s north west.
Both leaders have only visited once, but in the weeks and months leading up to the official campaign it was frequented by Mr Morrison in particular.
The Blue Mountains seat of Macquarie – held by Labor on 0.2 per cent, making it the nation’s most marginal electorate, has not had a visit from either leader, but is considered in play.
In northern Tasmania the Liberals are relatively confident they will hold Bass, but with a margin of just 0.4 per cent, the traditionally swing seat wouldn’t need much to flip.
Mr Albanese started his campaign in the seat, and both parties have held multiple events there.
NO GO SEATS
Despite moderate Liberal MPs in seats like Kooyong, Goldstein and Higgins in Victoria and Wentworth and North Sydney in NSW pleading with voters to save them from the well-funded independent challengers, Mr Morrison has not been seen campaigning alongside them.
Optimistic Coalition strategists are hoping only one of the once-safe blue ribbon seats will fall to an independent, likely Wentworth in Sydney’s east.
But there are fears the damage could be even worse.
One thing everyone agrees on is how imperative it is for Mr Morrison to stay well away from the large cohort of progressive voters who are very angry at the Prime Minister over his responses on climate, integrity and women’s issues.
Labor have no skin in this game and are happy to sit back and watch the independents cause trouble for the Liberals.
While Mr Albanese isn’t viewed as toxic for key central and north Queensland electorates as his predecessor Mr Shorten was, Labor have written off any chance of picking up seats like Herbert, Dawson or Capricornia, reflected in the lack of visits.
Labor initially hoped Flynn could be coaxed away from the Coalition due to the retirement of Nationals MP Ken O’Dowd, but Mr Albanese has not prioritised it for visits.
SAFE BETS
The Liberals are expecting to regain the south Sydney seat of Hughes, which they lost when sitting MP Craig Kelly defected to Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party.
Their confidence is evidenced by the fact the PM has not needed to campaign there so far.
By picking up Hughes, the Liberals offset the automatic loss caused by the recent redistribution where a Coalition-held seat in WA was abolished, and new notionally Labor seat was created in Victoria.
This seat, Hawke, is a certain gain for Labor.
Labor’s lack of visits to Lindsay in Western Sydney also suggest the party is not expecting to flip the seat, held by Liberal MP Melissa McIntosh with five per cent.
THE FINAL FORTNIGHT
The parties are not expected to drastically shake up their plans once pre-poll opens on Monday.
The Morrison camp are attending about three events a day but expect there will be more daily interstate travel.
Up to two trips to Western Australia are also on the cards.
Mr Morrison in 2019 showed he would leave no stone unturned, spending the morning of the election campaigning in northern Tasmania before returning to Sydney to cast his ballot.
Mr Albanese, who is following medical advice, will not do long days on the hustings while he recovers from Covid.
However, one Labor insider was quick to point out that with so many undecided voters across the country, it may not matter where the leaders physically go in the final fortnight before the poll.
This is because some of these cohorts do not consume traditional media, so the best way to win their vote may be through targeted digital advertising in those key electorates.
Either way, Aussies can expect to see more of both leaders as fight to take office in the 47th parliament.
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