Federal Election 2022: Quiet Australian voters and polling booths who will pick the winner
New polling booth data has revealed the quiet Australians who have an uncanny knack of picking the winner on election day. See who they’re voting for. SEARCH THE MAP
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They’re the true quiet Australians – the communities which accurately reflect the mood of the nation and have an uncanny knack of picking the winner on election day.
News Corp analysis has revealed the bellwether polling booths across Australia where voting patterns on May 21 will give a strong indication of who will form Government.
Voters at six booths have proven to be Australia’s ultimate election oracles, backing the winner in each of the last 10 elections all the way back to 1993.
A total of 105 booths around the nation have picked the result in the last six elections, back to 2004.
In New South Wales, the voters at Jannali High School in the seat of Hughes and the Samuel Terry Public School at Cranebrook in the seat of Lindsay both have perfect records, picking the winner at every election dating back to Paul Keating’s re-election over John Hewson in 1993.
In the South Australian electorate of Sturt, voters at the Norwood Primary School in Norwood, and the Payneham Road Uniting Church in Marden have also reflected the national mood for almost 30 years.
Victoria has one bellwether booth going back to 1993, the Mt Pleasant Road Primary School in Nunawading in the seat of Deakin, and Queensland also has one, the Mango Hill Community Centre at Mango Hill in the seat of Petrie.
Voters at the Broadview Uniting Church polling booth in the seat of Adelaide in South Australia have backed the winner every time since 2004, often against the tide of opinion in their seat.
They backed John Howard’s Liberals in 2004, the Labor Party under Kevin Rudd in 2007 and Julia Gillard in 2010, and went Liberal again under Tony Abbott in (2013), Malcolm Turnbull (2016) and Scott Morrison (2019).
The solid vote for the Liberals in 2004, 2013, 2016 and 2019 came despite Labor holding the seat every year since 2004 – first by Kate Ellis, then Steve Georganas, who replaced Ms Ellis in 2019 when she retired.
Just 5km down the road at Kilburn, Mr Georganas received double the first preference vote of his Liberal rival in 2019.
In the marginal Labor seat of Parramatta in NSW, voters at the St Bernadette’s Primary School polling booth at Dundas Valley also cast their first preference vote for the party that ended up winning the last six elections.
The Liberal majority vote at the booth in 2004, 2013, 2016 and 2019 came despite the seat being held since 2004 by Labor’s Julie Owens. With Ms Owens retiring, the seat is now wide open. Labor has endorsed millionaire economist and ex-adviser to Kevin Rudd, Andrew Charlton, while the Liberals have chosen Maria Kovacic, co-founder of Western Sydney Women.
Anoosh Abrahamian and her husband Sam have lived in Dundas Valley for 35 years and voted Liberal in 2019, but neither have decided how to vote this time.
“I think for my age, the inflation, the costs of living is very high now and everything goes up. I think that’s my main concern,’’ Mrs Abrahamian, 62, said.
Her husband was concerned about law and order and the drought, and said: “Do something tangible, I want a tangible party.’’
It’s a slightly different story in the Victorian seat of Deakin, which has four booths that have chosen the winner since 2004. The entire seat has also been a recent bellwether, with a Government MP elected every time since at least 2004.
Previously marginal, it has become more strongly Liberal and is now held by the Government on a relatively-comfortable margin of 4.7 per cent.
The bellwether booths voted to return veteran Liberal Phil Barressi in 2004, elect Labor’s Mike Symons in 2007 and 2010, then backed Liberal Michael Sukkar, who won it in 2013 and held it in 2016 and 2019. He will be up against Labor’s Matt Gregg next month.
In Queensland, voters at the bellwether booth in Mango Hill don’t appear to have their hearts set on either major party just yet.
The booth is in the seat of Petrie, held by Liberal Luke Howarth who won it in 2013 and currently enjoys a margin of more than eight per cent, as he faces off against Labor’s Mick Denton.
DUNDAS VALLEY, PARRAMATTA, NSW
Voters at the St Bernadette’s Primary School polling booth at Dundas Valley are a crucial bunch — they have picked the party that goes on to win the federal poll in every election since 2004.
Between 2013 and 2019, most of their ballots kept the Liberal Party in office, while the 2007 and 2010 polls saw Labor win government after John Howard’s last term of his Liberal reign began in 2004.
Despite that, their votes do not always result in electing the candidate who becomes the Parramatta federal MP, a title which outgoing Labor representative Julie Owens has held since 2004. It makes their vote one both major parties are observing sharply.
We asked constituents near the St Bernadette’s polling booth at Cox Cres how they were planning to vote in the poll.
Val Goodwin, 77, is undecided.
She voted for the Liberal Party in the last election because she “thought that was the best thing to do at the time”.
“I think if they’re good living people, that’s the bottom line for me,” Ms Goodwin said. “We can’t fix everything but if they’re good honest people that’s a good start.
“I suppose they’re (Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese) both good in their own way but we have to make a decision. I’m basically a Liberal voter.’’
She has lived in Dundas Valley for 44 years. “It’s certainly changing with the housing,’’ she said. “When we came here it had a bit of a bad name but I was happy because I lived opposite the church and it was a big thing for me.’’
Anoosh Abrahamian, 62, and her husband Sam have lived in Dundas Valley for 35 years and voted Liberal in 2019.
“I haven’t decided yet,’’ Mrs Abrahamian said.
“I think for my age, the inflation, the costs of living is very high now and everything goes up. I think that’s my main concern. You can’t complain with everything that’s going on in the world. It’s not just me, people complain about the prices, the rent. It’s not like I’m going to vote for one party, it depends on the time, who’s doing a better job at the time.’’
Mr Abrahamian also voted Liberal in 2019 but is sick of politicians not taking action.
“I haven’t made my mind up lately,’’ he said. “We’ve got so much rain, they don’t build any dams, any infrastructure.
“Then when there’s a drought, they say it’s the driest country in the world. Do something tangible, I want a tangible party.’’
Lucy Bourolias, 21, also remains undecided.
“I usually just talk to my parents and vote for who they are voting for because I’m not educated on it,’’ she said. “I think my dad voted for Liberal last time.’’
MANGO HILL, PETRIE, QLD
They work in bakeries, own small businesses or live out their retirement as contented “10 pound poms’’.
But don’t think the soothsayers of Mango Hill, who have backed the winning government for decades in this bellwether booth, have their heart set on any party in the looming federal election.
Mango Hill is in the wider seat of Petrie held by Luke Howarth who won it in 2013 and has a healthy margin of more than 8 per cent as he squares up against his main challenger, Labor’s Mick Denton.
To Shirley Dillon, 85, there’s no reason to throw out an incumbent government which she believed performed pretty well during the Covid crisis.
“I think what Scott Morrison did during Covid was pretty good,’’ Mrs Dillon said, spreading both arms outward and adding:
”How on Earth could he have done it better?’’
A few hundred metres away Charlotte Bailey, 29, is working hard serving customers at the Mango Hill Bakery.
Charlotte, who has done this job for eight years, has a slight lean towards Morrison’s Coalition, but doesn’t see herself as beholden to any party and will make up her mind closer to voting day.
She acknowledges the JobKeeper program kept her tethered to her job during the dark years of Covid, and she’s grateful for it, but that’s behind her now and she’s got ambitions for her future.
Charlotte is a worker at the bakery, not an owner, but understands business principles and her big aim in life is to get ahead financially.
She points to the nearby railway station which is expanding the car park and suggests the expanded car park will bring bigger volumes of traffic through the bakery as more people come and go.
“There will be more people coming in and out by train and that means more custom for the bakery,” she said. “That means more customers, more hours, more money.”
Bhaskar Patel, 49, who owns Bargain Mania, a small business in the heart of the district, is simmering with anger.
He knows the election is looming and he’s already making contact with the offices of both the incumbent and the challenger because he wants something done about crime.
Bhaskar understands this is primarily a state government issue, but he also knows that a federal government sets a tone for a nation, and if a politician wants to talk to him, Bhaskar will immediately direct the conversation to law and order.
”In two weeks, I have had two break-ins,’’ he said, scrolling down his phone to show the security camera footage which captured a youthful criminal smashing open his safe.
ADELAIDE, SA
A shock election landslide seeing the Liberals again rise to power could be incoming, according to a bellwether booth in Labor heartland.
Despite being nestled in the federal electorate of Adelaide held by Labor since 2004, the Broadview Uniting Church polling booth has produced a result at odds with its neighbours.
The inner-metropolitan suburb in Adelaide’s north, which has come to invite residents from places like South America and India, may be shifting the dial towards the Liberals.
Bob, 76, and Jenny, 71, Schahinger will both vote Liberal and they joined a cohort of their neighbours indicating a shock swing could be on the cards.
Mr Schahinger, a Vietnam War veteran, said he had voted Libs since joining the navy because of the way servicemen were treated by unions at the time.
“The way the unions treated us was absolutely abhorrent and that changed me, because I had come from a Labor family,” he said. “I saw what they could do to ordinary people and I was absolutely disgusted.”
While it appeared as though the Liberal party would again take the church booth, several voters who classed themselves as swing voters were still undecided. Alex Jimenez, 52, and Lily Rojas, 48, originally from Colombia, said they would decided who to vote for based on who would make the most impact for SA infrastructure and growth.
KELSO, BASS, NSW
Kelso, a tiny rural clump of residences nestled on the West Tamar between Greens Beach and Clarence Point, population 146, has, despite its size, picked the winner of the last seven federal elections – their opinions matter.
It may be a small drop in the ocean electorally – its booth returned 321 votes in 2019 – but its residents, many of whom are pensioners or retired (every second occupied house has a boat in the backyard), clearly know which way the political wind is blowing.
What’s more, Kelso is located in Australia’s most marginal seat, Bass, held by former George Town mayor Bridget Archer for the Liberals on a margin of 0.4 per cent.
Former health worker Dion Easther, 46, currently on sabbatical after caring for his elderly grandfather, told the Mercury he had already made his mind up who to vote for.
“It’s time for a change,” he said.
“The Coalition haven’t had a very good nine years in power.”
While he finds Labor leader Anthony Albanese “a bit vanilla”, he can’t stand Prime Minister Scott Morrison.
Mr Easther decried the short-termism of both major parties.
“I’d vote for any party which thinks about the future more than four years in advance,” he said.
“How many prime ministers have been stabbed in the back over incorrect polls? It’s a new phenomenon.”
Mr Easther said leaders needed to have the courage to embark on a big project – whether that’s east-coast fast-rail, a “massive solar array” or piping water from northern Australia to irrigate the interior.
Additional reporting: Joanne Vella, Michael Madigan, Brinley Duggan, Alex Treacy.
Got a story tip? Email us at federalelection@news.com.au
Know some goss or seen something in your electorate? Contact us at election.confidential@news.com.au
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