Federal Election 2022: Greens set to determine make-up of colourful Senate crossbench

The re-emergence of political chaos agents and a “mood shift” toward independents has sparked a heated race to the Senate.

THE re-emergence of political chaos agents and a “mood shift” toward independents has sparked a heated race to the Senate, with the Greens confident of clinching enough seats to hold the balance of power.

A total of 40 Senate spots are up for grabs, with death, preselection drama in multiple states, and a crowded field of conservative-leaning candidates expected to result in a number of sitting politicians losing their jobs after May 21.

The most significant changes are expected to be in Queensland, South Australia — where former Senator Nick Xenophon is hoping to make a comeback — and Victoria due to the passing of Labor’s Kimberley Kitching and the retirement of stalwart Kim Carr.

Nick Xenophon is hoping to return to the senate. Picture: Tom Huntley

Internal chaos within the Liberal Party in New South Wales has led to former frontbencher Concetta Fierravanti-Wells — put on the unwinnable fourth spot — losing the seat she’s held 17 years, with preselection drama also costing Senator Sam McMahon her Northern Territory slot.

Nationally, the Greens are expected to be the biggest winners with the minor party signalling it is confident of taking three more spots to bolster its team to 12.

In South Australia, Flinders University politics expert Haydon Manning said the “grand puzzle” is whether Mr Xenophon can “repeat the remarkable” outcome he managed in 2013 and 2016.

“But the question is also to what extent the 2018 (state) result of (Mr Xenophon’s) SA Best party, which was a demonstrable failure, has in a sense tarnished his name with voters,” Adjunct Professor Manning said.

The two Senators at risk of losing their jobs are Mr Xenophon’s number two Stirling Griff and one time protégé Rex Patrick — who Prof Manning doesn’t think has “much chance” of getting the needed vote quota.

In Queensland, mining billionaire Clive Palmer will again lead the highly cashed up United Australia Party’s ticket while former Premier and LNP defector Campbell Newman attempts to enter federal politics.

Senator Pauline Hanson, Leader of the Pauline Hanson's One Nation party. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen/The Australian

The two men round out an already crowded field of conservative options, with One Nation matriarch Pauline Hanson and the LNP’s Amanda Stoker fighting to be returned.

But the “fraying of the vote on the right” will be a major threat for Senator Stoker — who was preselected to the fringe third spot on the Coalition ticket — according to QUT politics professor John Mickel.

Prof Mickel said he was confident The Greens would likely pick up a seat in Queensland, along with a spot each in South Australia and New South Wales, due to a “quirk” of having no Senators requiring re-election in those states.

Senator Amanda Stoker. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Gary Ramage

Greens Senate Leader Larissa Waters, a Queenslander, said the party was on track for an “historic” win and would use the leverage to push their agenda.

“It’s looking increasingly likely that we will be welcoming three new Senators to the party room: Penny Allman-Payne from Queensland; David Shoebridge from NSW; and Barbara Pocock from South Australia,” she said.

Greens Leader Adam Bandt and Senator Larissa Waters at Parliament House on March 15. Picture: Sam Mooy/Getty Images

If this eventuates, The Greens could become the “biggest third-party” in Australia’s history and hold the balance of power in the Senate in its own right.

In Victoria, the shock passing of Kimberley Kitching, and the retirement of Kim Carr following factional brawling has meant the entry of two new Labor hopefuls — unionist Linda White and former bureaucrat Jana Stewart.

A resurgent Jacqui Lambie, whose rebel brand has surged over the last term of government, has created the live option in Tasmania of the Senator’s self-named “Network” clinching a seat through candidate and long-time friend Tammy Tyrrell.

Preselection drama in the Northern Territory has led to the exit of the CLP’s Sam McMahon, with controversial commentator and Alice Springs councillor Jacinta Price expected to win enough votes to take her place.

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Originally published as Federal Election 2022: Greens set to determine make-up of colourful Senate crossbench