Federal Election 2019: Polling shows Liberals have chance of third Senate seat in SA, but it could fall to One Nation

The Liberals are in a four-way fight with the minor parties for a third Senate seat — but One Nation could have its first SA Senator instead.

Former Adelaide councillor Alex Antic, who managed to climb above Lucy Gichuhi on the Liberals Senate ticket, is in contention to snare the final SA spot, new polling shows.

Analysis based on multiple surveys conducted over the past three months from the public policy think tank The Australia Institute show the Australian Greens are gaining momentum in South Australia, as are a collection of right-wing minor parties.

The Liberals are in for a four-way tussle with One Nation, Centre Alliance and Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party for one of two of the last Senate spots.

The polling suggests Labor and the Liberals will secure two each of the first senate spots followed by Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young.

If the Liberals were to secure a third Senate spot it will be a huge coup for Mr Antic.

The former councillor campaigned hard last year to secure the number three spot on the Liberals Senate ticket above incumbent Gichuhi.

Polling suggests former Adelaide City councillors Alex Antic has a chance of winning a Senate seat for the Liberals. Picture: Simon Cross

The institute’s SA projects manager Noah Schultz-Byard said as the Greens gained momentum and a crowd of far-right minor parties secured a sizeable portion of the vote, a result where both flanks of politics are represented in the SA Senate is a possibility.

“Climate change, the Murray River and drilling in the Great Australian Bight have been strong statewide issues in this election, potentially helping the Greens and other progressive minor parties,” he said.

“Clive Palmer’s advertising blitz has lifted his party’s chances, but on these projections the crowded field of right-wing micro parties is most likely to result in One Nation securing a seat.

“As with all Senate predictions it’s important to recognise that these are only forecasts and, when it comes to May 18, anything could happen.

“With the balance of power depending on just a few Senate outcomes across the country, the path for either major party to pass legislation through the next parliament could become rather complicated.”

Campaigning in Adelaide rather than her native Queensland on Friday, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson said she was hopeful Senate candidate Jennifer Game could become the party’s first South Australian MP.

Ms Hanson, who described herself as the anti-Senator Hanson-Young candidate, stopped short of saying she was confident of victory, with a crowded field of right-wing parties complicating her path to victory.

“There is support for One Nation in this state,” she said.

The Senate’s current make-up

26 Labor

25 Liberals

9 Greens

6 Nationals and Country Liberal Party

2 One Nation

2 Centre Alliance

2 Independents (Tim Storer and Fraser Anning)

1 Liberal Democrats

1 UAP

1 Derryn Hinch’s Justice Party

1 Australian Conservatives

SA Senators

Anne Ruston, Liberal Party (term expires today)

David Fawcett, Liberal Party (term expires today)

Lucy Gichuhi, Liberal Party (term expires today)

Alex Gallacher, Labor Party (term expires today)

Sarah Hanson-Young, Greens (term expires today)

Tim Storer, independent (term expires today)

Simon Birmingham, Liberal Party (term expires in 2022)

Penny Wong, Labor Party (term expires in 2022)

Don Farrell, Labor Party (term expires in 2022)

Rex Patrick, Centre Alliance (term expires in 2022)

Stirling Griff, Centre Alliance (term expires in 2022)

Cory Bernardi, Australian Conservatives (term expires in 2022)