Last-minute predictions on who will win the election, when and by how much, and what headlines we won’t see
After a sometimes fiery, sometimes dull election campaign, Australians finally go to the polls on Saturday. Our experts add their prediction – and their humour – on what will happen.
Analysis
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After a sometimes fiery, sometimes dull election campaign, Australians finally go to the polls on Saturday. Our experts add their prediction – and their humour.
Matt Smith
National Affairs Editor
The Advertiser
Who wins: Labor
Why: The Liberals leadership change has played into a sentiment that politicians never do what they say they will. Labor voters that went with Turnbull last time will return to red. Young people, and those concerned about the environment, will vote in droves for Labor. People will not necessarily be voting for Shorten – but instead Wong, Pliberesk, Bowen, Butler et al.
What time will it be decided: 8.39pm on Saturday. (Tuesday for the Senate.)
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 79, Coalition 66, Other 6.
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: Bernardi’s man secures final senate spot.
Paul Starick
Chief reporter,
The Advertiser
Who wins:Labor
Why: Scott Morrison has campaigned well but needed more time to overcome baggage of infighting and subsequent public dismay/disinterest. Bill Shorten’s discipline has allowed united Labor team to focus on issues of concern to mainstream Australians and sidestep lasting and detailed scrutiny of spending plans.
What time will it be decided: 9.30pm Saturday
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 82, Coalition 63, Other 6
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: Malcolm Turnbull and Tony Abbott confess – we’re to blame for Liberal loss.
David Penberthy
The Advertiser columnist/FIVEaa radio presenter
Who wins: Labor
Why: Despite a gutsy rearguard effort by Morrison, the Libs did not have time to recover from the leadership chaos of the past few years, and lose key seats to independents.
What time will it be decided: 11.15pm Saturday
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 76, Coalition 68, Other 7
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: With any luck: Fraser Anning Returned in Landslide
Matthew Abraham
Columnist, Sunday Mail
Who wins: Liberal minority government.
Why: In a way that anything is possible, a Morrison win is possible. Honestly, I haven’t got a clue, but my rule is tip wild or go home. The impact of Clive Palmer’s unexpected $53m advertising blitzkrieg is the great unknown. A crossbencher will reluctantly accept the Speaker’s job.
What time will it be decided: Next Thursday
Final seat count in the lower house: Coalition 74, ALP 73, Other 4
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: “I’m disappointed in Bill” – Chloe
Cameron England
Business Editor,
The Advertiser
Who wins: Labor
Why: A lack of a real energy policy (read climate change policy) and leadership chaos have eroded the Coalition’s right to govern in many people’s minds. Scott Morrison’s “more of the same” electoral pitch is falling flat, while Bill Shorten appears to have had some charisma training which will help him over the line.
What time will it be decided: 10pm on Saturday
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 76, Coalition 70, Other 5
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: Clive Palmer commits to paying back workers’ entitlements
Mark Kenny
Contributing Editor,
The Advertiser
Who wins: Labor
Why: Malcolm Turnbull’s sudden demise sharpened the sense of a government beholden to deep conservative forces. Scott Morrison’s unwavering focus on Bill Shorten and the supposed risks of Labor’s bold agenda, will have frightened some voters, but there is a hunger for greater economic fairness and more decisive action on emissions.
What time will it be decided: 10.13pm Saturday
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 78, Coalition 67, Other 6
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: From miner to major: PM Palmer’s stunning win
Daniel Wills
State Political Editor,
The Advertiser
Who wins: Labor
Why: Coalition infighting and its tin ear on cut-through issues like female representation and the belief that economic inequality is growing have entrenched a mood for change, while Labor’s significant policy platform and new-found unity have positioned it as a viable alternative. Bill Shorten’s emotional tribute to his mother counteracted perceptions of inauthenticity, which has been his primary political liability.
What time will it be decided: Trend to Labor clear on the night, but days of counting needed to confirm results in knife-edge Queensland contests.
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 76, Coalition 71, Other 4
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: YES, WE CAN: Australia rejoices as (insert leader here) wins election with inspirational plan to unite the nation
Tory Shepherd
State Editor,
The Advertiser
Who wins: Labor
Why: Because all we have is data and that’s what the data shows; every poll, every betting market. But I wouldn’t bet on it, because weird stuff happens.
What time will it be decided: One minute before deadline
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 76, Coalition 68, Other 7
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: Palmer Bows Out, Gracefully, Vows to Spend Rest of Money Saving Humanity
Michael McGuire
Senior reporter,
The Advertiser
Who wins: Labor
Why: The Liberals will be punished for a chaotic six years in government, just as Labor was the time before. People are sick of the constant change in leaders and are prepared to take a punt on Labor being relatively more stable. Climate change is also a growing issue again and the Liberals have very little to say that is credible on the subject.
What time will it be decided: 9.51pm on Saturday
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 79, Coalition 69, other 3
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: Scott Morrison says Labor voters will go to hell
Chris Russell
Senior reporter,
The Advertiser
Who wins: Labor
Why: Climate change is the decisive issue. It’s hard for voters to decipher big dollar numbers of taxes, cuts, surpluses and debt. But they see clearly droughts, floods, bushfires, melting ice, wild storms and destruction of the Reef, rivers, forests and animal habitat. They’re not fooled by commentators and want action.
What time will it be decided: 9.15pm Saturday
Fin al seat count in the lower house: ALP 79, Coalition 66, Other 6
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: Back in black – Business to invest in King Coal as Libs win
Adam Langenberg
State Political Reporter,
The Advertiser
Who wins: Labor, governing in minority
Why: The redistribution tipping Corangamite and Dunkley to Labor makes it too hard a hill for the Liberals to climb to victory, but I have them reclaiming Indi and Wentworth, as well as one of Braddon or Bass, but losing Cowper to independent Rob Oakeshott. This outcome assumes a minor swing in Queensland, which is enough to tip Capricornia, Flynn and Forde to the ALP. Bill Shorten needs the swing to be on in Queensland and Victoria enough to get Petrie, Dickson and Chisholm over the line to be able to govern in majority.
What time will it be decided: Tuesday
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 74, Coalition 72, Other 5
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: Palmergeddon: United Australia Party forms government after leader’s pledge of poll domination comes to fruition
Jade Gailberger
Federal Political Reporter
The Advertiser
Who wins: Labor
Why: It’s not going to be the landslide victory punters may have predicted post leadership spill. Labor will scrape over the line despite the Coalition making a comeback in the polls. The spotlight will be on several key seats across Victoria, NSW, Queensland and WA, and the outcome of these seats will not be finalised on the night due to the record number of pre-poll votes.
What time will it be decided: Tuesday
Final seat count in the lower house: ALP 78, Coalition 69, Other 4.
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: Barnaby Joyce becomes deputy Prime Minister, again
Eva, The Democracy Sausage Dog
Who wins: Labor
Why: Bill Shorten gave me a nice cuddle the other day. Plus, I tried Scott Morrison’s sausage but had to spit it out ‘cos it didn’t taste nice.
What time will it be decided: Hopefully by 8pm Saturday – there’s a re-run of The Ugly Dachshund I want to watch on 7mate.
Final seat count in the lower house: As long as there’s one nice cushion available for when I visit Bill, I don’t care how many seats there are.
Headline you won’t see on Sunday morning: And the wiener is …
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