Joe Hildebrand: Why did no one tell Peter Dutton where the holes in his policies were?

Peter Dutton believed he was on a winning streak and nobody told him he was wrong until it was all too late. It was echo chamber politics, pure and simple, writes Joe Hildebrand.

My best mate is the smartest person I know and has one of the sharpest political brains I have ever encountered.

Engage him in any debate and he will present a towering case, a great tapestry of logic that stitches together a mountain of evidence and lays the whole job lot at your feet as an impenetrable and indisputable fait accompli.

Then he will pause for a moment and add: “Of course I could just as easily argue the opposite…”

It sounds a simple thing and perhaps it is, but it is also vital.

And it is also something the Coalition clearly forgot to do.

There is every indication today that the Opposition is heading for an electoral bloodbath.

The latest YouGov poll is predicting the Albanese government will actually increase its number of seats to 84 while the Coalition will go backwards to 47. An exit poll in Dickson conducted by The Courier Mail suggests Peter Dutton could even lose his own seat.

While such apocalyptic predictions may be inflated, it is clear the Liberal leader is about to have a very bad day at the office.

Only a few months ago the Coalition was riding high at 52-48 two-party preferred and was favourite among the bookies to win the election. Today it is facing a possible wipe-out.

And so where did it all go wrong?

Already there has been bitter finger-pointing within the Coalition camp — or its two opposing camps to be precise — while others will blame everything on Trump or the media or Labor lies.

The latest YouGov poll is predicting the Albanese government will actually increase its number of seats to 84 while the Coalition will go backwards to 47. Picture: Jason Edwards / NewsWire

But ultimately it comes down to my mate’s absolute maxim: Always test every argument with the opposite argument to see if it still stacks up.

Dutton and his team clearly believed they were on a winning argument and had nobody telling them they were wrong until it was all too late. It was classic echo chamber politics, pure and simple.

And the problem with echo chamber politics is that it is incredibly alluring, like those deep sea fish that use a pretty light to attract their prey only to crush their jaws around the unsuspecting morsel.

It starts by being surrounded by people who say your default position is correct and don’t challenge your beliefs or your arguments.You then feed these ideas to your base, these days almost entirely through social media, and of course they immediately resonate with the people who already agree.

This gives the party or the leader the impression that there is a groundswell of support for whatever it is — as well as a massive dopamine rush as the politician is flooded with positive feedback.

Indeed, it is the same phenomenon that has led experts to warn about the dangers of social media for children.

Social media platforms condition the brain to respond to simple binary stimuli — such as whether to post a like or not or how many likes a post gets — instead of being able to form meaningful relationships or navigate complex social situations.

Now apply that to Peter Dutton’s policy on, say, nuclear power — arguably his biggest Achilles heel.

This is the ultimate incarnation of the mob mentality that has been disrupting, bedevilling and destroying political debate in the 21st century. Picture: Adam Head / NewsWire

If you have people holding up charts and maps and saying it’s a great idea and anyone who opposes it is an idiot, and you look at your social media feeds and thousands of people are liking it and cheering it on, of course you’re going to think you’re on a winner.

But in fact you are incubating a disaster.

Because if every argument isn’t stress-tested against every possible counterargument it will instantly disintegrate upon contact with the real world.

Forget all the people who just hate nuclear. What about the people who say they like it but don’t want to live near it? Or the people who say they like it but not if it costs to much? Or the people who say they like it until presented with another option that the other team says is better?

Any policy that hasn’t been inoculated with exposure to all possible threats will simply have zero immunity during an election campaign.

And that is exactly what happened to Dutton and the Coalition on nuclear. On working from home. On public service cuts.

Again, they might blame Labor lies or media misinformation but the real problem is these policies had no defence against such a response because they weren’t robustly tested enough.

And of course if you operate in an echo chamber you will naturally think that any countervailing views are lies and misinformation. Hello Twitter!

This is the ultimate incarnation of the mob mentality that has been disrupting, bedevilling and destroying political debate in the 21st century.

And if you want to know how destructive it is look no further than Dutton’s position in politics after election night.

For more on politics get The Real Story with Joe Hildebrand wherever you get your podcasts

Originally published as Joe Hildebrand: Why did no one tell Peter Dutton where the holes in his policies were?