How the Liberals have got it wrong in Mayo

The Liberals have a big problem in a once blue-ribbon seat. Watch as our political experts analyse the fallout from the latest poll.

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It is near-impossible to look at today’s polling for Mayo and not conclude the Liberal Party has made serious mistakes in the seat they held for 32 of the 35 years since the seat was established. But the question is: Which was the worst mistake?

Firstly, it is important to point out that Georgina Downer is not a bad candidate; far from it, in fact.

Despite spending years away from the electorate and returning — like many young people do from around the world each and every year — Ms Downer clearly has strong links to the electorate.

She is an intelligent, articulate, hardworking conservative-minded Liberal, with a surname synonymous with the region; the type of candidate the electorate has previously embraced.

Nevertheless, the Liberals erred in not managing to entice the equally impressive Rebekha Sharkie back to their ranks.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Liberal candidate for Mayo Georgina Downer campaign in Hawthorndene in late April. Picture: Mick Tsikas/AAP

In May last year, The Advertiser reported Liberal members in the Adelaide Hills had revolted against a bid to return Ms Sharkie, a former Liberal Party staffer, to the party and bolster the Federal Government’s numbers in parliament.

In a backlash said to involve the state’s most senior Liberal, Christopher Pyne, branch leaders in the Hills seat of Mayo were said to have voted to spurn any attempt to bring the ex-Nick Xenophon Team MP back into the party’s ranks.

At the time, it appeared the preference was to see Ms Downer contest the seat her father Alexander had held from 1984 to 2008. She even moved from Victoria to contest the Super Saturday by-election in July last year. It was, all around, the wrong call.

Rebekha Sharkie is favoured to retain her Hills and Fleurieu seat of Mayo at the federal election. Picture: Hollie Adams

Then after being well and truly beaten, the party weeks later backed her to go again. Another mistake.

Liberals hoped Ms Downer would be able to convince voters that only an MP in government could truly deliver the infrastructure and services the community need. However, today’s polling shows they have been wide of the mark.

Voters clearly see the benefit of having a crossbench MP able to twist the arm of a future prime minister.

Fatally, they underestimated Ms Sharkie’s popularity.

Ms Sharkie also shares the views of much of her electorate, while also maintaining an anti-politician schtick when so many have turned off the major parties.

LISTEN: FEDERAL ELECTION PODCAST: PYNE & ELLIS