Analysis: What Pauline Hanson’s preference deal means for Labor

Make no mistake, Labor is still favoured to win the federal election despite Pauline Hanson making the job harder in Queensland, writes Matthew Killoran.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation preferencing the LNP ahead of Labor in every Queensland seat makes Opposition leader Anthony Albanese’s job much harder, but make no mistake, he’s still the favourite to win.

Queensland has consistently been the kingmaker state and the ALP have been hoping to pick up two seats there to go towards the seven net seats it needs to claim a majority.

Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese is still favourite to win, but a the One Nation preference arrangement will make his job harder. Picture: Steven Siewert/Getty Images

Internal polling from the parties has the state remaining stubbornly still, with the 30 electorates currently likely to remain in their existing hands.

There will be real contests though in Longman, Leichhardt, Brisbane, and the off-chance of a shock result in what should be the safe LNP seat of Ryan.

That’s why the One Nation preferences in Queensland matter.

In tight contests, the flow of its votes could be enough to clinch the outcome in crucial seats.

Labor’s currently ahead in the National polls 53-47, which is enough for it to easily win government, but on the seat-by-seat battle it is a struggle to pick where it will easily win.

Two to three seats in Perth, one or two in Tasmania are on the cards, with movement expected each way in NSW and Boothby in SA in play, but little is certain.

Without picking up seats in Queensland it will be difficult for Labor to win a majority government.

Every seat will matter come May 21.

Originally published as Analysis: What Pauline Hanson’s preference deal means for Labor