Drought stricken farmers set for relief in 2016 as monster El Niño weather event declines
FORECASTERS predict the new year will bring relief for parts of the country plagued by drought when the monstrous El Niño event finally declines.
FORECASTERS predict the New Year will bring relief for parts of the country plagued by drought, as the most severe El Niño event in 17 years starts to decline.
The El Niño system, which dominated the nation’s weather in 2015, meant there was zero chance of respite this year.
But Bureau of Meteorology climate monitoring and prediction manager David Jones said 2016 would deliver a welcome reprieve for farmers as the weather system winds down.
“We’ve noticed the El Niño event is peaking and it’s probably already starting to breakdown so certainly the first three to six months of 2016, the main story will be one of El Niño in decline,” Dr Jones said.
“There was never really much prospect for drought relief in 2015 with the El Niño there.
“Basically the best you could hope for was conditions might stay about the same and that’s what’s happened or in places it has worsened.
“Now as we move back into more normal climate we should see some improvement in the drought situation.”
The weather system delivered below average rainfalls to areas of nearly every state and territory this year, crippling farming output.
Severe rainfall deficiencies in the lowest five or 10 per cent of historical records devastated WA’s south west, SA’s south east and most of Victoria, according to the latest Bureau of Meteorology drought update.
The December report said pockets of Tasmania, QLD and the NT also recorded similar serious deficiencies.
Dr Jones said it was unlikely the El Niño shift alone would be enough break the drought, but forecasters were hopeful a La Niña system — characterised by wet conditions — would appear in the second half of 2016.
He said a La Niña system would be the best outcome for farmers in the wake of the major El Niño which was the worst to hit the country since 1997-98.
The Bureau predicts January’s maximum and minimum temperatures would be warmer than normal across northern and eastern Australia, and WA, while temperatures will be cooler than usual in parts of the southeast.
The first three months of 2016 are also likely to be drier than average in parts of northern and southeast Australia.
Southeast Queensland and Tasmania are likely to be wetter than average.
Dr Jones said the El Niño coupled with global warming had delivered record-breaking temperatures this year, but this should “normalise” as the system weakens.
Originally published as Drought stricken farmers set for relief in 2016 as monster El Niño weather event declines