Australians sceptical of $368bn AUKUS bill

There’s one part of the AUKUS agreement that has left Australians unconvinced, a new poll has found. See poll results.

Australians are unconvinced that the AUKUS nuclear submarine plan is worth the $368bn bill, with a new poll showing Labor voters are most sceptical about the cost.

But the majority of Australians nonetheless believe acquiring a nuclear-powered undersea force is a good idea because they expect armed conflict with China within the next decade.

The United States Studies Centre research, to be released ahead of Anthony Albanese’s trip to China to meet President Xi Jinping, reveals widespread concerns about China’s influence in our region and strong support for Australia defending Taiwan in the event it is attacked.

Anthony Albanese and Joe Biden at the White House last week. Picture: Evan Vucci/AFP

The YouGov poll of 1019 people also shows Australians believe the return of Donald Trump in next year’s US presidential election would be bad for our country, with 37 per cent of those surveyed even saying it should prompt Australia to walk away from the US alliance.

The Prime Minister spent four days in Washington DC last week on a prestigious state visit, during which President Joe Biden cautioned him to “trust but verify” in his dealings with China and vowed to push ahead with new laws needed to implement the AUKUS pact.

But the plan – for the US to sell at least three submarines to Australia in the 2030s before nuclear vessels made in Adelaide are completed in the 2040s – has hit choppy waters, with Liberal elder statesman Alexander Downer calling it a “white elephant” and a “fairytale”.

According to the USSC poll, 42 per cent of Australians believe it is not worth the cost, while just 21 per cent are confident it represents value for money for taxpayers.

“Labor voters appear much more sceptical of the partnership, being almost twice as likely than Coalition voters to say the submarines are a bad idea for Australia, and less likely to say that AUKUS makes Asia safer,” USSC research director Jared Mondschein and research editor Victoria Cooper said in their report.

Donald Trump is the leading candidate to win the Republican nomination for next year’s presidential election. Picture: Scott Olson/AFP

While the federal government has maintained the AUKUS agreement does not compel Australia to support the US in an armed conflict, 47 per cent of voters nonetheless said they believed that would be the case.

The polling, completed in August, found just a third of Australians thought armed conflict with China was unlikely in the next 10 years, while only 16 per cent believed China played a helpful role in Asia.

Australians overwhelmingly agreed China would become the region’s most economically and militarily influential country by 2048, and only 11 per cent said that would be a good thing.

Just 22 per cent of voters opposed sending Australian military forces to help the US defend Taiwan in the event it was invaded by China.

Overall, the proportion of Australians who said the US alliance made them feel more secure fell from 63 per cent last year to 54 per cent, while 45 per cent said the potential return of Mr Trump would be bad for Australia – compared to 22 per cent who were worried about the impact a second term for Mr Biden would have.

Originally published as Australians sceptical of $368bn AUKUS bill