Joe Hildebrand: Trump’s time to show his mettle and finally prove he really is a bad-ass
Donald Trump now has a chance to actually deliver on his bombast with actual bombs – and he should, not just for the world’s sake, but for his own, writes Joe Hildebrand.
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“I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do.”
Never in human history have truer words been spoken, and they were of course spoken by Donald J. Trump.
The US President was talking about whether or not he would unleash America’s bunker-busting bombs on Iran in an effort to destroy its nuclear capability once and for all.
His international backers want him to do it, his isolationist backers don’t want him to do it.
So will he do it?
Nobody knows – including, I suspect, the Donald himself.
Prior to this moment Trump’s default tactic of big talk, bigger threats and then a great big beautiful deal at the end, has produced results that at best range between disappointing and disastrous.
He swore he would end Russia’s war against Ukraine by doing a deal with Vladimir Putin and Putin simply ignored him. Ever since then the war has only escalated.
He swore that unless Hamas handed over all of the remaining Israeli hostages he would rubbelise Gaza and turn it into a high-end tourist resort.
Sadly for Mediterranean holiday-makers, that too has failed to come to pass.
But now he has a chance to actually deliver on his bombast with actual bombs.
And he should. Not just for the world’s sake – perhaps not even for the world’s sake – but for his own.
Indeed, this is the best and only metric on which to anticipate Trump’s decision-making, even if – as he himself says – that is impossible to do.
In fact, by saying so, he has effectively confirmed what many have long suspected and what certain uncannily handsome and wise columnists have long said.
And this is that Trump’s erratic and often irrational behaviour is all part of a deliberate ruse to unsettle adversaries and allies alike.
“Madman diplomacy” is not, as it sounds, a dismissal of deranged despots wreaking havoc on the international stage.
Rather it was a deliberate strategy devised by Henry Kissinger and Richard Nixon during the fog of the Vietnam War.
If America’s enemies always presumed that the superpower would act predictably and within certain international rules or norms, then they could always seek to take advantage of it, safe in the knowledge that any response would be “proportionate” – to use a term now more loaded than a B-52 bomber.
But the wily Kissinger reasoned that if the Soviet Union and China thought Nixon was a madman who could at any moment go nuclear – both literally and metaphorically – they would be too nervous of a global conflagration, and thus hold their horses in a regional conflict.
Now Iran and its quasi-allies Russia and China – stop me if this is sounding familiar – must make the same calculation about Trump.
But the problem for the President is another foreign policy doctrine that has emerged in recent weeks, known as TACO – Trump Always Chickens Out.
Trump has failed to follow through on any of his big geopolitical threats. The madman has been exposed as a meek man. And this undermines all of Trump’s strategy and authority.
If the madman never goes mad, then he is merely a man.
But Israel’s war with Iran is different. The Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine wars are centuries-old, highly complex conflicts.
Putin and Hamas are obviously the aggressors in each, but the military and political solution to either is far less clear.
However US v Iran is a battle of good versus evil as clear as a WWE wrestling match. We are actually talking Hulk Hogan versus the Iron Sheik.
The despicably theocratic and totalitarian Iranian regime is hated not just by Israel and not just by the West, but also by all the other Arab states and – most importantly of all – by Iranians themselves.
They rose up in the Green revolution of 2009 and will almost certainly rise up again if the regime is sufficiently weakened.
And who will flock to the Ayatollah’s aid? Certainly none of his people and none of his neighbours.
That leaves Russia, which frankly has enough on its plate, and China, which is too busy eyeing off a different piece of real estate on the other side of Asia.
It’s like dialling 911 after a Defund the Police rally: Nobody is coming.
Indeed, Iran’s only friends appear to be Western online activists who have decided that if Israel is against it, then they must be for it. I don’t think they have nukes though.
Thus this is Trump’s time to show his mettle. Everybody hates the Iranian government, especially the Iranians.
The President should finally prove he really is a bad-ass and blow the regime to hell.
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