Fears NSW Police shortage could take decade to fix without ‘drastic’ changes

Top officers warn it may take 10 years to rebuild NSW Police numbers, as internal documents admit vacancies are likely to keep growing- despite government efforts and a surge in applications.

Exclusive: It could take a decade until NSW Police numbers return to where they need to be some top cops fear, as internal documents reveal those in charge of turning the force’s recruitment issues around are aware there is no quick fix.

The NSW Police force was down almost 2,400 officers at last count, with just 16,028 cops out of an ideal strength of 18,374.

The Sunday Telegraph can reveal that despite the Minns government’s much-hyped scheme to pay recruits for their time training at the Goulburn Academy, behind closed doors police are privately admitting vacancies will “most likely increase for the foreseeable future”.

Sensitive documents uncovered by upper house MP Rod Roberts detail frank admissions from police that the number of vacancies will not soon reduce “unless something changes drastically”.

Premier of New South Wales Chris Minns and Police Minister Yasmin Catley, meet new police officers at Burwood Police Station. Picture: NewsWire/ Gaye Gerard

“(The) number of vacant authorised police positions will only reduce when recruitment levels reach around or above 1,500 police officers per year,” the official NSW Police document from 2024 states.

“On current trajectory of trends, vacant authorised police positions will continue to increase given the projected recruitment separations.

“By 2026, it is forecasted to be above 3,000 vacant authorised police positions.”

The documents state that at a recent count 1,100 cops are currently joining each year, while roughly 1,400 are departing.

While accepting the efforts to fix the problem will take time, senior police sources said they are worried it could take more than ten years.

“It will be a decade at least before we are where we need to be,” one senior police source said.

Others are more hopeful, but still frank about the fact there will be no quick fix.

“Not a decade, I would hope it will be closer to five or six years,” they said.

When questioned over the issue, a Minns government spokesperson said claims it could take 10 years to get the NSW Police Force back to full strength were “incorrect” - but provided no timeline on how long it would take.

Police Minister Yasmin Catley pointed the finger of blame for the issue at the previous coalition government and the Optional Disengagement Scheme, which she said left the police heading on “an alarming trajectory”.

Police Minister Yasmin Catley. Picture: NewsWire / Max Mason-Hubers

“For three years they ran a ‘lottery’ where police could log on to a website on a given day and time and the first couple of hundred in could get paid to leave!” Minister Catley said

“It cost taxpayers almost $70 million to pay out some of the most qualified and experienced officers left the force and worse, the Liberal-National Government failed to attract new ones.

“We are making it easier to become a police officer and we’re supporting them to have long and fulfilling careers.

“The hard work is not over – repairing years of damage will take time but we’re committed to getting it done.”

Emma Munro left the NSW Police Force in February, less than three years after she graduated from Goulburn Police Academy.

She said the staffing issues further compounded the challenges of an already demanding job, leaving her with very little life balance.

Emma Munro left the NSW Police Force in February. Picture: Jonathan Ng

“I thought that if I joined the cops I could potentially make a difference … I just thought I could help society, really,” Ms Munro said.

“Because they were so short staffed there I ended up doing 10 night shifts in a two-week period, and then I did 10 day shifts in the next two week period.

“I was leaving home (in Picton) at 4.30am to get down there (to Wollongong) and kitted up by 6am, and then you’re lucky to be home by 7.30pm that night.

“For me, it was a largely lifestyle decision, to get out.”

Since coming into power the Minns government has announced several initiatives aimed at boosting recruitment, including covering the $30,984 it costs to study at the Goulburn Academy – an amount recruits were previously required to pay themselves.

That was followed by an additional incentive, in the form of a payrise for police across the state last November.

The government claims their initiatives have seen a 70 per cent jump in applications to join the NSW Police over the past 18 months.

Police Association of NSW president Kevin Morton said he believed the current initiatives would “go a long way to attracting people”.

But he said the association would keep pushing the Minns government to boost cop numbers, and were realistic “the issue of recruitment is not going away in the short term”.

“Our currently serving policemen and women are still bearing the brunt of an overwhelming workload; that’s why we continue to monitor our members’ jobs and push back to other agencies that should manage them,” Mr Morton said.

Press conference with Yasmin Catley, Minister for Police and Counter-terrorism and NSW Police Commissioner Karen Webb. Picture: Max Mason-Hubers

A NSW Police spokesperson said a rise in applications did not always translate to a boost in cops on the beat “for a variety of reasons”.

“The NSW Police Force has developed a number of recruitment and retention strategies to boost operational and staffing capacity,” the spokesperson said.

“All these initiatives have contributed to an increase in recruitment application numbers to the NSW Police Force, we note however that applications do not necessarily translate into attesting recruit numbers for a variety of reasons.”

Originally published as Fears NSW Police shortage could take decade to fix without ‘drastic’ changes