Criminal profiler tells where Geelong’s Night Stalker could strike next

Renowned US criminal profiler analyses Geelong night stalker’s every step. SEE THE INTERACTIVE MAP

What does he want?

It’s a question keeping many awake as a serial prowler, now commonly referred to as the Geelong night stalker, continues to target homes in the dead of night.

His offending has been prolific, and has alarmingly spread from the sleepy suburbs of Victoria’s second biggest city to the breezy beachside town of Torquay, a 30 minute drive away.

Kitted with a surgical mask, gloves, wide brimmed hat and a hooded tracksuit, the shadowy figure has been reported or seen attempting to enter at least 21 properties that we know of, and captured on countless security cameras peering through windows and key holes.

Only once has he gained entry, at Bell Post Hill, where he allegedly spent six minutes inside the two-storey residence as its occupants slept.

He took nothing and left, slipping back into the darkness.

Again, the question nags.

What is his motive?

Leading US criminal profiler Mike King says the pattern of behaviour is a familiar one.

And it’s almost certainly predatory.

He should know, he has tracked some of the worst predators known to man and shared prison lasagnes with “the real” night stalker, sadistic serial killer Richard Ramirez.

Mr King has trained FBI profilers and taught thousands of investigators worldwide in a law enforcement career spanning four decades.

The Geelong Advertiser sent him a brief of what we know about the Geelong offender’s alleged crimes, the areas he has hit and his bizarre behaviour carried out almost exclusively between the witching hours of 2am and 4.30am, in the hope he can help answer that gnawing query nibbling away at us all.

“With the limited amount of information that we have my assessment would be he is absolutely satisfying a fantasy, to a degree,” he said.

Mr King was at pains to say any theory was being built on only snippets of intelligence.

But it was “pretty powerful information”.

“We’re talking predatory behaviour, where he’s thinking ‘I have to stay ahead of the enforcement effort or the publicity,’ in order to be successful.” he said.

“We don’t know if he has got a mental illness and is just wandering around, but you can start to negate things like that because he is dressing to be successful.

“He wears a mask, he wears gloves, a hoodie. He is doing what he needs to do to maintain all anonymity, and that says cognitive decision.

“(He’s thinking), ‘I know this is wrong, but I’m doing it anyway and I’m going to do this to improve my chances of not being caught’.”

Geelong police are remaining tight-lipped, but have assured residents it remains a top priority. They have conducted night patrols in the areas he has targeted.

“The investigation remains ongoing and as such, we won’t be providing further comment at this stage,” Detective Acting Inspector Stephen Pucar said.

FBI criminal profiler Mike King has tracked Geelong’s mysterious.

Many are growing nervous in the community that the man’s offending might escalate.

“The whole saga has our suburb on edge,” one Rippleside homeowner said this week.

It’s the suburb he has targeted the most across the six-week series, which began in January.

“A lot of residents aren’t sleeping well, constantly checking doors and windows, worried they’ll wake to find him in their home,” she said.

Another long-time resident, Sally (not her real name), said many are agitated, and even angry, contemplating what would happen if they came face-to-face with him.

“They’re worried someone is going to get hurt,” she said.

“To me, it’s not random behaviour. He knows what he’s doing, plans his little night-time jaunts and barely seems to flinch when he looks into a CCTV.”

King said in his experience, the masked offender is “getting a kick” out of just attempting to access homes.

“Predators go through a period of fantasy where they sit and dream about all these experiences they are going to have, whether it is breaking into a house or whatever,” he said.

“But like all fantasies it is never as cool as reality, so they eventually have to act that out.

“The danger of someone like this is eventually that isn’t satisfying enough and they have to ramp up their game.”

Security footage at a Bell Post Hill home captures a man attempting to gain access to their home.

So who could it be?

After looking at the geographically locations of the alleged offences, King believes the offender was likely a Geelong man or was travelling from Melbourne.

His target areas haven’t ventured far off the Melbourne-Geelong Rd on the M1 and the commute to Torquay, where he attempted to break-in to four homes last Friday, was a simple one.

“The things that make sense to me, again with the limited amount of information we have, is he’s either a resident of the Geelong area or he is working his way down from Melbourne,” Mr King said.

“It’s not someone who just happened to be walking home from the beach in their flip flops and T-shirt and is peeking through a window, this guy is preparing.

“Usually these predators don’t commit crimes in neighbourhoods that they don’t fit in with.

“They have to blend in as they travel to and fro.”

Perhaps he thinks he’s too smart for police and the technology that’s been able to capture his face so clearly.

Footage of him staring into home security cameras has sent shivers down the spine of all who have seen it, and live close by.

It hasn’t stopped him.

Sally said she hopes he “slips up soon or is dobbed in”.

King explained serial offenders tend to get sloppier as time goes on.

“The beauty with a serial predator like you have here, is that while they start out very organised, in many cases the fantasy and the emotion overtakes common sense,” he said.

“And that’s when they start to make mistakes, and become what we call disorganised.

“They start to do things you can capitalise on in an investigation.”

A hat that appears to belong to the Rippleside night stalker was spotted by locals. Picture: Facebook.

Like dropping a hat?

The prowler was chased from a Rippleside home by a pet German Shepherd last month after returning to the area, with a broad brimmed hat eerily similar to the one had been seen wearing found on a footpath.
It was handed into police.

“What is really frustrating as a cop, sometimes it is just a waiting game until they start to fall apart a little bit,” he said.

“Meanwhile everything else is coming together like forensics, eyewitnesses and everything else.”

So again, the question is raised.

What does this man really want?

What is his end game?

It’s impossible to know, and we are all left to theorise.

Is he casing homes so he can return later to steal items?

Does he just enjoy sneaking around in the dark scaring people?

Is it attention?

One thing is certain, according to Mr King, is this type of serial offender won’t stop until he is caught.

“Without trying to terrorise people, that is the mindset of a predator,” he said.

“And unless he has some kind of incredible awakening, it will get worse.”

Mike King is a distinguished criminal behavioural expert and creater of the Profiling Evil and Mapping Evil in Australia podcasts and YouTube channels.

Originally published as Criminal profiler tells where Geelong’s Night Stalker could strike next