Geelong Football League breakdown: Each club’s stats that point to winning
The Addy’s local footy experts have crunched the numbers on what could be a season-defining weekend across Geelong. Find out where your team lands.
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The second round of the Geelong Football League is shaping to be an early season-defining round despite plenty of games left in the year.
Colac is set to host rivals St Mary’s in an intense battle for early-season favouritism, while Grovedale and Geelong West will both be desperate to avoid a 0-2 start.
Read the breakdown of each game and find out where teams can win their match.
Grovedale v Geelong West
Both sides are coming off round 1 losses, with Geelong West falling one point shy of Leopold, while Grovedale lost by 32 points to South Barwon.
There is plenty of room for improvement heading into round two for both teams, especially moving the ball forward effectively.
Against South Barwon, the Tigers only scored nine goals from 37 inside-5os (24 per cent), while the Giants went at a similar rate with nine goals from 39 inside-50s (23 per cent).
It was relatively even at the coalface for both matches, meaning the efficiency once the ball gets forward will be crucial to sway the result of this match.
North Shore v St Joseph’s
North Shore showed the competition it came to play in 2022 after a huge 131-point win against Lara in round 1, while St Joseph’s pushed Colac in the early stages of the first match of the year.
But where the Seagulls won their game is where St Joey’s lost it, with massive differentials in clearances in both games.
St Joseph’s only won 26 clearances against Colac, losing at the coal face by 11, while North Shore won 47 (plus 13) clearances in the game against Lara.
St Joseph’s midfielders Reid Adams and Alex Hickey combined for 12 clearances, but will need help combating North Shore’s Nick Dixon, who had 12 himself.
South Barwon v Lara
After a surprisingly heavy loss last week, Lara might double down in the pain against South Barwon in round 2.
Lara was smashed at the contest against North Shore, and the Swans are expected to be much tougher competition on Saturday.
New South Barwon recruit Jackson Carmody will cause headaches for Lara after the forward booted six goals from 22 disposals in his club debut.
Carmody was able to push up the ground and provide a threat entering the arcs, with eight inside-50s helping the Swans across the line against Grovedale.
Lara, which already conceded seven goals to Seagulls forward Mitch Langan, will need to kerb Carmody’s influence in front of goal.
St Albans v Bell Park
St Albans will have a massive task on Saturday if the club expects to beat Bell Park, which is coming off a disappointing loss to Newtown & Chilwell.
The Supersaints will need to clean up its poor disposal efficiency to retain possession, after recording just 216 disposals in round 1.
Last year’s wooden spooners went at just 35 per cent by foot, causing plenty of turnovers as they wilted to the pressure of St Mary’s.
Bell Park’s tackling pressure was enormous despite the loss to the Eagles, with the Dragons recording 71 effective tackles.
If the Dragons can turn around its poor clearance rate (29 to 46 in round 1), while still applying tackling pressure against St Albans, Bell Park can expect to return to the winner’s column in round 2.
Colac v St Mary’s
The two best sides in the GFL across the past three seasons are set to face off, with the battle in the centre set to be enthralling.
Colac star midfielder and co-coach Darcy Lang will face off against Mathieson Medal winner Harry Benson.
Lang was dominant for the Tigers in round 1, collecting 34 disposals and kicking two goals on his way to a best-on-ground performance, while Benson had 33 touches and a goal himself.
St Mary’s coach Travis Robertson said there would undoubtedly be some attention going to Lang, but he was confident in his midfield group.
“We back our own midfield, but it’d be naive of us to not put some time into the players that have had good performances the week before, and Darcy is definitely one of those,” he said.
“Last time we played them we put some effort into him and unfortunately he got injured early in that game, but we’ll spend some time analysing how we want to best structure up against him.”
Colac co-coach Rowan McSparron said his midfield brigade would be up for the challenge against another strong on-ball contingent.
“Darcy is a quality play, so is Harry (Benson), it’s going to be a good challenge for everyone involved, we can’t just rely on one or two players,” he said.
“St Mary’s runs pretty deep in the midfield as well, they’ve got enough good players to try to run it off their own course, but we’ll wait and see what happens.”
Newtown & Chilwell v Leopold
Both sides are sitting 1-0 after the first game of the season, with Leopold securing a one-point win against top-four side Geelong West.
The Eagles were very effective in finding avenues to goal against Bell Park, with 23 scoring shots from just 32 forward-50 entries.
Newtown & Chilwell kicked a goal in more than one third of its entries (34.7 per cent) against Bell Park.
Meanwhile, Leopold kicked just nine goals from 56 entries (16 per cent) in its one-point win against Geelong West in blustery conditions.
Power Rankings: Where your GFL team sits before week two
Round 1 is done and dusted, and we saw some huge results in the first week of the season.
From massive upsets and demolitions to kicks on the siren to win and comebacks, the first round had everything a football fan would want.
See where your club ranks here.
1. St Mary’s
It is only right the reigning premiers, which has been their title since 2019, holds onto the No.1 tag after round one.
The Saints did not have much resistance in the opening round, beating last year’s wooden spooners St Albans by 158 points.
After shaking off some rust in the first quarter, where the Saints only kicked three goals, St Mary’s showed off slick ball movement and strong attacking prowess to end with 26 goals in the match.
Patrick Dowling slotted eight goals, while Damian McMahon had three and Sam Bourke, Darcy Chirgwin, Nick Nott, Charlie Sprague and Jesse Travaglini kicked two each.
Mathieson Medal favourite Harry Benson led the way with 33 disposals, seven clearances and a goal.
St Mary’s will play Colac in round 2.
2. Colac
There has been some distance between St Mary’s and Colac with the rest of the competition for a while now, but the Tigers were put under a bit of pressure in round 1.
St Joseph’s jumped out to a 20-point lead against 2019’s grand finalists before Colac’s cogs started turning.
At the main break, the Tigers were down by two points, before running out 28-point winners.
Captain Darcy Lang was Colac’s best with 34 touches and two goals, while Luke Hillman slotted four goals in the win.
Colac will play St Mary’s in round 2.
3. South Barwon
South Barwon’s 32-point win against Grovedale was an early litmus test for both sides.
Grovedale was tipped to be big-improvers in 2022 after a fruitful recruitment drive, but the Swans ultimately proved too strong after a slow start.
Held goalless in the first quarter, South Barwon led at halftime and ran out 93-61 winners.
Jackson Carmody kicked six goals to help get the Swans across the line, while Luke Davis was one of the team’s best players with 22 disposals, 10 clearances and a goal.
South Barwon will play Lara in round 2.
4. Newtown & Chilwell
It was a result that caught many pundits by surprise, but Newtown & Chilwell was able to knock off finals contender Bell Park in the opening round.
Despite trailing after the first quarter, the Eagles stormed back in the second, kicking five goals to set up a 20-point win.
Lachlan Bond slotted five goals for the Eagles, while Blake Sutterby collected 28 disposals and laid seven tackles in the win.
Newtown & Chilwell will play Leopold in round 2.
5. Leopold
An errant kick at goal to win has given Leopold victory against Geelong West in the opening round of the season.
Despite holding a quarter-time lead, Leopold trailed at the next two breaks to the Giants and looked like the side’s inaccuracies in front of goal would cost them.
But two goals in the last quarter was enough to regain the lead, and a shot at goal for Geelong West with just minutes remaining sprayed right, leaving the Lions one point up as the siren sounded.
Mitchell Patten kicked 5.7 from his 20 disposals and was the Lions’ best in the win.
Leopold will play Newtown & Chilwell in round 2.
6. St Joseph’s
The signs were there for St Joseph’s as the side pushed premiership contenders Colac in round one.
While Joeys ultimately lost to the Tigers to the tune of 28 points, they held a 20-point lead at quarter time and it looked as though there might be a massive upset brewing.
But Colac was too good for St Joseph’s, clawing back supremacy and running out 28-point winners.
Luke Webb had 24 touches and kicked two goals for the home team, while Alex Hickey had 28 disposals and 10 marks.
St Joseph’s will play North Shore in round 2.
7. North Shore
While the win came against an uncompetitive Lara, the Seagulls would be happy to take home a massive win in round one.
North Shore beat Lara to the tune of 131 points, rocketing the Seagulls into second position on the ladder.
Seven players kicked multiple goals, including Mitch Langan (seven), Jason Davenport (four) and Jacob Sammut-Miljevic (four).
Noah Lever had 33 disposals and two goals as one of the side’s best in the strong win.
North Shore will play St Joseph’s in round 2.
8. Geelong West
The Giants would have expected to start its season off with a win, but a one-point loss to Leopold is not going to derail their season.
Despite holding a slim three-quarter lead, Geelong West could not hold on against the Lions, losing by one point away from home.
The Giants are still expecting to make the top five in 2022, after a strong season in 2021’s ultimately cancelled year of football.
David Handley had 28 disposals and laid 14 tackles in the loss.
Geelong West will play Grovedale in round 2.
9. Bell Park
An upset loss to Newtown & Chilwell was not the ideal start to the season, but Bell Park will focus on securing a strong win against St Albans in round two.
After finishing fourth in 2021, the Dragons started their new season with a 20-point loss against the Eagles.
Lachlan Patten was the Dragons’ best with 32 disposals and a goal in the loss, while Jackson Bright kicked two goals from his 16 touches.
Bell Park will play St Albans in round 2.
10. Grovedale
A strong recruiting drive ahead of the 2022 season has not led to a win in round one, with Grovedale falling to South Barwon.
The Tigers held the lead at quarter time, but struggled to stop the Swans from scoring after the first break.
Star forward Tom Gillett and ruck Ryan Abbott did not play for Grovedale, but new recruit Cassidy Parish was good in his debut with 27 disposals.
Matt Harvey found plenty of the ball, with 36 disposals and eight clearances to his name.
Grovedale will play Geelong West in round 2.
11. St Albans
St Albans was no match for St Mary’s, suffering a 158-point loss to open the season.
St Mary’s improved every quarter, kicking three goals in the first, six apiece in the second and third periods, and enjoyed an 11-goal feast as the reigning premiers put their foot down.
Despite having less than half of the possessions that St Mary’s had, St Albans still managed seven scoring shots during the massive loss.
Matthew McKenzie kicked both of St Albans goals, while Jacob Russell had 23 disposals in the midfield.
St Albans will play Bell Park in round 2.
12. Lara
Even though it was a shortened season in 2021, Lara still finished higher on the ladder than North Shore.
So it was surprising to see Lara get smashed around the ground and lose to the Seagulls by 131 points.
They struggled to get their hands on the ball, recording only 222 disposals to North Shore’s 357, and while they kicked an inaccurate 5.11, they conceded 27 goals – the most of any team.
Only Daniel Weigl recorded 20 disposals, and he also laid four tackles in the loss.
Lara will play South Barwon in round 2.
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