Cunningham: NT Labor guaranteed a long stretch in opposition if it goes left

As Territory Labor continues to examine the wreckage from its disastrous election showing, it stands at a difficult crossroad, writes Matt Cunningham.

Former Nightcliff MLA Natasha Fyles when she resigned as the Northern Territory’s 13th Chief Minister. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

As Territory Labor continues to examine the wreckage from its disastrous election showing, it stands at a difficult crossroad.

Labor has been annihilated by the CLP across most of Darwin and Palmerston after losing control of crime and failing to drive economic growth.

The CLP ran a simple campaign based on three key messages; crime, the economy and lifestyle.

All three were a reminder that for almost everyone who lives here, living standards have gone backwards for the last eight years, and particularly in the last four.

Labor also lost a little bit of bark on the left, losing one seat to a Teal independent and another to the Greens.

This has some in the party, and plenty of commentators outside of it, arguing Labor needs to shift left.

This would be a mistake.

Former Nightcliff MLA Natasha Fyles, Former Chief Minister Eva Lawler and former Education Minister Mark Monaghan at 2024 Territory Day at Mindil Beach, Darwin. Picture: Pema Tamang Pakhrin

Let’s first examine this “green wave” that has apparently swept over Darwin.

 The Greens have won Nightcliff with just under 22 per cent of the primary vote, behind Labor and the CLP

Their victory has been secured because so many of the almost 24 per cent of constituents who voted for the CLP were determined to send Labor a message – mostly about crime – they ignored the how-to-vote card and preferenced the Greens ahead of the ALP.

The Greens also came close in Fannie Bay.

But the real story here was the performance of the CLP.

Its candidate Laurie Zio had the odds – and the preferences – stacked against her.

But she won after securing almost 40 per cent of the primary vote.

Her unlikely victory was made possible because almost 40 per cent of people who voted for Labor’s Brent Potter were so worried about the Greens winning they ignored the how-to-vote card and preferenced the CLP.

While ABC radio declared the Greens win in Nightcliff was “the biggest story” of the NT election, there is far more evidence of an orange tsunami than a green wave.

A better analysis came from ABC election guru Antony Green who quickly dismissed one punter’s assertion that that Territory voters were moving left.

“An 11 per cent swing to the CLP who increase from 7 to 17 seats in a 25-seat Assembly and you assert that voters keep moving left?” he said.

CANBERRA, AUSTRALIA, NewsWire Photos. SEPTEMBER 6, 2024: The Hon Lia Finocchiaro MLA at the National Cabinet meeting at the Committee Room at Parliament House in Canberra. Picture: NewsWire / David Beach

This brings us back to Territory Labor and where it sees its future.

Today it stands in its worst position in more than four decades.

For the first time since self-government it has failed to win a seat in Darwin.

The road back looks long a difficult.

But, as the CLP has proven after winning just two seats in 2016, fortunes can turn quickly in Australia’s smallest jurisdiction.

Labor will be well advised to lay low for a while.

The CLP’s emphatic win has left it with 17 seats.

This will surely cause headaches at some point.

A large backbench allows room for disquiet to breed, especially among those who have not been rewarded with the spoils of a cabinet position.

Some inevitable CLP missteps should see Labor recover some ground by 2028, but at some point it will need to develop the policy positions of an alternative government.

Does it head left to try to win back votes it has lost to the Greens, or somehow find a way to win back those in the middle it lost with a pursuit of progressive social policies?

As one of Labor’s smarter members put it to me this week: “Whenever people think Labor should veer left I reckon there are two questions they should ask themselves: 1. How many times has Labor lost a seat to the Greens? 2. How many times has Labor lost a seat to the CLP?”

At last month’s election the answer is 8-1.

It’s hard to believe then, that some believe Labor’s next move should be to the left.

Banning fracking, stopping Middle Arm, saving Lee Point and re-raising the age of criminal responsibility might help some of Labor’s more progressive members sleep better at night safe in the knowledge of their moral superiority.

It might even help them win back Nightcliff.

But it will almost guarantee a long stretch in opposition.

Originally published as Cunningham: NT Labor guaranteed a long stretch in opposition if it goes left