Analyst’s frank fears for a once safe Far North Labor seat
A healthy margin won’t be enough to save a battling Labor minister from losing his seat this Saturday if a forecast swing to the LNP is in full effect across the Far North, a political analyst says.
Cairns
Don't miss out on the headlines from Cairns. Followed categories will be added to My News.
A healthy margin won’t be enough to save a battling Labor minister from losing his seat this Saturday if a forecast swing to the LNP is in full effect across the Far North, a political analyst says.
But Coalition insiders have flagged growing concerns about their candidate’s capacity to appeal to voters after running an, at times, uninspiring campaign.
Griffith University’s associate professor Dr Paul Williams said Labor looked set to lose the seat of Cairns, currently held by Tourism and Sport Minister Michael Healy, with a YouGov poll projecting a 7.7 per cent uniform swing against the government.
“I think Cairns is gone (for Labor),” Dr Williams said.
“It might be unfair on the government, because youth crime is an Australia-wide issue.
“Housing is an international issue, cost-of-living, inflation, they’re all post-Covid conditions and the only thing unique to Queensland is the rollout of Olympic infrastructure.”
As a result, several LNP candidates had been given a head start at this election, Dr Williams said, including its candidate for Cairns, Yolonde Entsch.
“The electorate is looking at Labor and voters’ lives are worse off than they were in 2020 and 2017 - things are more expensive, wages haven’t kept up, and voters just need to kick someone they think is responsible,” he said.
But LNP rank-and-file in the Far North have expressed concerns with Ms Entsch’s bid to unseat the incumbent, with her fundraising, public speaking and door knocking efforts having been questioned internally at different stages.
Compared to her main rival, Ms Entsch has also had limited engagement with the media throughout the campaign.
Saturday’s results could likely resemble the famous Campbell Newman whitewash where several regional candidates ran “small target” campaigns and were voted in, Dr Williams said.
“Look what happened in 2012,” he said.
“You had dozens of LNP candidates, chosen late in the piece, win safe Labor seats – they didn’t say or do anything.”
The LNP won a whopping 78 out of a total of 89 seats at that election.
Mr Healy holds a 5.6 per cent margin from the 2020 election.
MEET YOUR CAIRNS CANDIDATES AHEAD OF THE QLD STATE ELECTION
Geena Court (One Nation)
The award-winning businesswoman moved to Cairns at age 17, working in real estate before establishing her own property business.
As part of her campaign, Ms Court is calling for a military-style diversion program for troubled youths to be established on the Tablelands in a bid to solve the youth crime crisis.
Last month, crime forums hosted by her and other One Nation candidates in the Far North were criticised for failing to feature any of the party’s branding on promotional materials with some attendees claiming they were misled.
Ms Court ran for the seat of Leichhardt in the 2022 federal election.
Josh Holt (Greens)
An arts administrator and community volunteer, Mr Holt is a first-time candidate calling for a two-year rent freeze to address the cost-of-living and housing challenges in the Far North.
The Edge Hill resident supports developing high-density complexes in the Cairns CBD and establishing a public property developer to buy land and increase the availability of affordable housing.
Additionally, Mr Holt has campaigned for capping the prices of 30 essential items at Coles and Woolworths and introducing free sports for school kids.
Mr Holt’s background also includes working in the education and hospitality sectors.
Michael Healy (Labor)
First elected in 2017, the former sales director at Quicksilver Group has served two terms for the ALP in the historically safe Labor seat of Cairns.
Mr Healy has almost 25 years’ experience working in the tourism sector, including as a director of Tourism Tropical North Queensland and Tourism Events Queensland.
Prior to entering politics, he spent a decade serving as board member and later chair of Access Community Housing, the largest non-profit community housing initiative in the Far North.
Earlier this month, Mr Healy announced plans to build a $25m high performance training facility in Cairns, if re-elected, and has made several other infrastructure announcements during his campaign.
As part of a cabinet reshuffle in December, he became Tourism and Sport Minister.
Yolonde Entsch (LNP)
Since being named as the Coalition’s candidate for Cairns last year, Ms Entsch has run a campaign that has almost exclusively focused on crime.
The 2020 Cairns Citizen of the Year has backed the LNP’s policies for young offenders, including a $50m Regional Reset program for at-risk youths to be rolled out across the state.
Ms Entsch has also supported proposed changes that would allow a child’s criminal record to be admissible during sentencing as an adult.
Earlier this month, she endorsed investing $6m to complete the construction of a new state-of-the-art facility at Stan Williams Park in Manunda, worth $18m, if elected.
Ms Entsch is the former chief executive for Wheels of Wellness Cairns which provides healthcare and wellbeing support for the homeless.
Shane Cuthbert (Independent)
Mr Cuthbert’s criminal history includes convictions for public nuisance, wilful damage and drink driving.
If elected, he has claimed he will become Australia’s first elected representative to have previously served time in jail.
Mr Cuthbert is campaigning on a platform of “making Cairns safe again” with a focus on addressing youth crime.
Earlier this year, the law graduate ran a failed local government campaign to become Cairns’ Division 4 councillor.
Mr Cuthbert has previously posted videos of himself online featuring Nazi paraphernalia. He later deleted the videos.
State election results
2020 - Cairns
Michael Healy(ALP)............... 44.20%
Sam Marino (LNP)...................36.48%
Daniel Dench (Greens).............9.82%
Darrin Griffith (One Nation).....5.93%
Sarah Baxter (IMOP).................2.52%
David Wright (UAP)....................1.05%
More Coverage
Originally published as Analyst’s frank fears for a once safe Far North Labor seat
Sentence revealed: Chapter closes on tragic tale of new Aussie arrival
The woman who slashed her own mum’s throat with a Stanley knife in a horrific public attack on the Cairns Esplanade has been sentenced in the Cairns Supreme Court.
‘Pathological rage’: Mother sentenced after stabbing her two young daughters
A mother took a knife she was sharpening and stabbed her two young daughters, who fled for safety, before turning the blade on herself, a Cairns court has heard.