No campaign gaining ground in same-sex marriage debate

THE campaign against same-sex marriage is gaining ground — with the No side effectively planting a seed of doubt into the minds of more Australians.

ANALYSIS

IT seemed improbable before the ballot was launched, but support for same-sex marriage seems to be falling quickly.

Newspoll today has found overall support for marriage equality has fallen five percentage points in just two weeks, the critical opening weeks of the postal survey.

Elements of the No-case are demanding, with increasing clamour, that protection guarantees be given for basic freedoms of speech and religion — before the result of the SSM postal ballot is known.

The demands come with no explanation of how any body but Parliament could give the guarantees, and without any precision in explaining what the dangers are.

Nor is there adequate explanation of why this deterioration of freedoms hasn’t happened in New Zealand, where SSM was approved four years ago.

Inner Sydney has been a mecca for the Yes campaign, but the no campaign is gaining traction, putting doubt in the minds of many Australians on the fence. Picture: Brook Mitchell / Getty

The process — insisted on by those opposed to SSM — is for the postal survey to indicate whether or not there is broad support for change.

If there is approval, the next step is for draft legislation to be put to Parliament to debate and vote on.

The No-case argument reverses that and demands someone with the authority of Parliament dictates what the legislation will contain.

Quite clearly, the No case pre-emptive outrage is not genuinely aimed at ensuring protections but is part of a strategy to inject doubts into the appreciation of the Yes-case.

It is tainting the Yes case. And it seems to be working.

The red herring is becoming top dog in the marriage equality debate, even though polling today shows a significant majority of voters want any potentially harmful aftermath of SSM approval to be dealt with by Parliament, not before any decision in the postal survey.

The Newspoll in The Australian found support for same-sex marriage had fallen from 62 per cent to 57 per cent, just a few weeks after SSM postal survey ballots began to be mailed out.

Support for SSM fell from 55 per cent to 47 per cent among Coalition voters and from 75 per cent to 70 per cent among Labor voters.

The final result of the survey will not be known until November 15.

The Newspoll did not directly touch on any need for “guarantees of freedom of conscience” being given during the postal campaigns but asked whether these and related matters should be protected by law passed by Parliament.

Some 62 per cent of voters agreed with thus, the same proportion as two weeks ago.

But the insistence of guarantees to come from people in No position to give them, remains loud, And flimsy.

Originally published as No campaign gaining ground in same-sex marriage debate