Nation tipped to reach 27 million population milestone by Australia Day

Australia is readying for a new milestone on the back of the largest annual increase in population in the nation’s history.

Demographer and social researcher Mark McCrindle says the ‘Lucky Country’ sentiment persists. Picture: Jordan Shields / AAP IMAGE

Australia is readying for a new population milestone, tipped to reach 27 million on the eve of Australia Day on the back of the largest annual increase in population in the nation’s history.

In 2023, the “Lucky Country’s” population grew by 624,100, equivalent to adding the population of the entire state of Tasmania – and then some.

Leading national demographer Mark McCrindle hascrunched the numbers and says the most recent annual growth is 41 per cent larger than the previous record when the population increased by 442,500 in 2009.

“This growth is equivalent to one new Australian every 50 seconds – if (that growth rate) persists, the next million could take less than two years with the 28 million milestone arriving on August 25, 2025,” the principal social researcher and demographer at McCrindle Research said.

Australia is tipped to reach a population of 27 million by Australia Day. Picture: Max Mason-Hubers

“This red hot growth is beyond what was forecast; 20 years ago the government forecast … we would hit 25 million in the year 2042 and 27 million in 2054; we are already 24 years ahead of schedule, so if we are wondering why house prices are so high, people can’t get a rental, there are infrastructure bottlenecks … we are sort of two decades beyond the planning cycle.

“Increasingly people are going to live in high-rise buildings with more apartment dwellings than ever before … it is quite a different Australian dream to the detached house in the suburbs.”

In 2023, while the number of births (295,900) and deaths (189,900) was on par with the annual average – 305,240 and 165,210 respectively – it was net overseas migration that drove the record growth, with 737,200 overseas arrivals and just 219,100 departures.

“This latest data shows (migration) now accounts for 83 per cent of total annual growth … if you include not just those born overseas but those with at least one parent born overseas, that is now more than half the population – we are a migrant majority nation,” Mr McCrindle said.

India has surpassed China as the country of origin of the most number of migrants.

As well as being more culturally diverse, the population is also getting increasingly older.

“We are older than ever before … now, at retirement the majority of people can expect to live three decades beyond that, which is the longest post-working life we’ve ever seen,” he said.

Mr McCrindle said despite the changing make-up, the “Aussie spirit” persisted.

“There is a different attitude Australians have generally to other parts of the world … we still consider ourselves as the ‘Lucky Country’ … there remains a sense we have unique values that mark us; we remain proud of our roots and ‘can do’ attitude (and) the Aussie sense of humour still shines through,” he said.

“We are a nation of people of diverse cultures but we do gather around what it means to be Australian– and we want to protect and champion that for the future.”