‘Top five’: Shocking Covid stat as cases soar
A chief health officer says three new varients of Covid are spreading in Australia, as new statistics about the disease come to light.
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Experts have sounded a warning over “complex” and highly-transmissible Covid subvariants taking off in Australia — as new data shows the virus is among the nation’s top five killers.
Queensland chief health officer John Gerrard told the Courier Mail three sub-variants are now spreading in the state – FLiRT, FLuQE and most recently de-FLiRT.
“Due to this mutation, as well as fluctuating community immunity, we are witnessing more than one wave each year,” he said. “Covid-19 has not yet developed a clear seasonal pattern.”
The FLuQE subvariant is ripping through the US will likely produce a bulge in new cases in Australia, experts have warned.
This comes as newly-published data shows the illness has become the third leading cause of death in Australia — marking the first time in over fifty years an infectious disease has ranked so highly in the nation’s mortality statistics.
According to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW), with 9,859 deaths attributed to the virus, Covid-19 trailed only coronary heart disease and dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, as a leading cause of death.
The AIHW’s “What do Australians Die From” report released this week provides a comprehensive overview of the health conditions involved in the 191,000 registered deaths in Australia in 2022.
“This new data, while it was collected in 2022, shows that Covid can be highly dangerous, particularly within the aged and vulnerable community and this is something we cannot forget,” Professor Nigel McMillan, an infectious disease expert told the Courier Mail.
The report leverages all health conditions recorded on death certificates to offer insights into the interplay of multiple diseases and the contributing factors in a person’s death.
“Understanding what Australians die from is complex and the answer can vary, depending on how we assess the conditions involved,” AIHW spokesperson Michelle Gourley said.
“Traditionally, statistics about how people die are based primarily on the initiating or ‘underlying’ cause of death, but death certificates also contain other information that can be useful in understanding why a death occurred.”
Ms Gourley said the nuances of death certificates that are not clear-cut.
“For example, while the underlying cause of death for a person might be coronary heart disease, the death certificate might also record the health condition that led directly to death, such as acute myocardial infarction (heart attack),” she explained.
“Other conditions that significantly contributed to the death, such as hypertension, diabetes, alcohol use disorders, Covid-19 and other contextual factors may also be recorded on the death certificate.”
The AIHW report also underscored variations in Covid mortality.
The death rate due to Covid increased with age, with more than half of the deaths occurring among individuals aged 85 and over.
Males experienced higher mortality rates compared to females across most age groups, with the death rate for males aged 70-79 being twice that of females in the same age group.
New Covid variants drive Aussie cases
A highly transmissible Covid subvariant will likely produce a bulge in new cases, disease experts warn.
The FLuQE subvariant is ripping through the US, and University of South Australia biostatistician Adrian Esterman said the mutation would hit Australians in just a few weeks.
“It might take another few weeks to hit us, but it will,” he told NewsWire on Wednesday.
“It’s really starting to take off and in America, it’s starting to skyrocket.”
The FLuQE subvariant mutated from the FLiRT variant that hit Australia at the end of last year and in early 2024.
Professor Esterman said FLiRT was “almost certainly” responsible for a bulge in Covid cases across May.
In South Australia alone, new weekly Covid cases rose from 924 on April 17 to 2394 on May 22 before falling back to 980 on June 19.
Professor Esterman warned FLuQE could dodge immune systems and “bind more efficiently with ACE2 receptors”, making them more transmissible.
“That’s why you’re seeing KP. 3 (FLuQE) really take off for the moment,” he said.
FLiRT and the FLuQE subvariant were descendants of Omicron, the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners said.
“The FLiRT variants are a group of subvariants of JN. 1 from the Omicron lineage,” Dr Lara Herrero writes on the RACGP website.
“JN. 1 was detected in August 2023 and declared a variant of interest by the World Health Organisation in December 2023.
“By early 2024, it had become the most dominant variant in Australia and much of the rest of the world, driving large waves of infections.”
Professor Esterman said a portion of the country’s elderly population might not be properly prepared for the coming wave.
Only 40 per cent of elderly Australians and 40 per cent of aged care residents had received updated booster shots, he said.
A new vaccine, based on the KP. 2 or FLiRT variant, would be applicable to FLuQE, he said, and would likely become available in Australia towards the end of the year.
“The new updated vaccine will work extremely well against it,” Professor Esterman said.
He said current vaccines offered “some immunity” to FLuQE.
KP. 3 has become the fastest-growing strain due to an additional mutation, making it more contagious.
Experts say the evolution has heightened the risk of reinfection, outpacing the current vaccine updates.
The World Health Organisation (WHO) recently recommended the development of new vaccines targeting JN. 1 (a precursor to FLiRT) to provide better protection against the new variants.
Australia’s life expectancy decreases in 30-year first
The AIHW report also noted that Australia’s life expectancy has declined for the first time since the mid-90s.
A child born in 2020-2022 can expect to live 81.2 years for men and 85.3 years for women, representing a slight reduction of 0.1 years for both sexes.
Coronary heart disease remained the leading cause of death for men, accounting for 11,303 deaths (11 per cent), followed by dementia.
For women, dementia, including Alzheimer’s disease, was the most common cause, resulting in 10,976 deaths (12 per cent), followed by coronary heart disease.
Covid-19, lung cancer, and cerebrovascular disease also featured among the top five causes of death for both sexes.
The report reveals significant age-related differences in mortality causes. Among infants, peri-natal and congenital conditions were predominant, while land transport accidents were the leading cause of death among children aged 1-14.
Alarmingly, suicide was the primary cause of death for individuals aged 15-44.
Chronic diseases dominated the causes of death for those aged 45 and over, with coronary heart disease leading for males and cancers (such as breast and lung) being the leading causes for females aged 45-74.
Dementia was the leading cause of death for those aged 75 and over.
The data further highlights the impact of chronic conditions and the ageing population on Australia’s mortality rates.
The majority of deaths (four in five) were due to multiple contributing diseases or conditions.
Originally published as ‘Top five’: Shocking Covid stat as cases soar
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