Emmy Awards predictions: Why the brilliant Shogun and The Bear are leading the pack

The Emmys are shaping up to be a big showdown between a historical drama series and red-hot comedy. Here are the predicted winners in every category.

James WigneyNational TV reviewer

@JamesWigney

7 min read

September 14, 2024 - 12:30PM

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If last week’s Creative Arts Emmys are anything to go by, Monday’s Primetime awards are cooking up a showdown between Shogun and The Bear.

Shogun, the sweeping and meticulously recreated historical drama about power struggles in feudal Japan adapted from James Clavell’s best-selling doorstopper novel, scored a record-breaking 14 wins at last Monday’s ceremony and is sure to add more in major categories in tomorrow’s Primetime Emmys, which will be streamed live on Foxtel and Binge from 10am.

The Bear, which follows the ups and downs of troubled chef Carmine “Carmy” Berzatto and his dysfunctional family and frazzled colleagues in running an up-market restaurant, in July set a new record for nominations in a single year in the comedy category with 23, and has already been awarded seven, including guest actor wins for Jon Bernthal and Jamie-Lee Curtis.

Given that Shogun is competing in the drama categories and The Bear (weirdly to many) is designated a comedy, the two shows are expected to dominate especially in a slightly unusual year that isn’t overshadowed by a highly-awarded, established series such as Succession.

Father and sone duo Daniel Levy (L) and Eugene Levy will host this year’s Primetime Emmy Awards. Picture: Robyn Beck / AFP

Yes, the sixth and final season of The Crown (far from its strongest) is still a force with 18 nominations and The Morning Show (retitled Morning Wars in Australia) is heavily represented for its third season but it’s hard to see either one making too much of an impact on Shogun, which has arguably been the best thing on TV this year.

Similarly, the much-loved Only Murders In the Building and the ever-improving Hacks are worthy contenders in the comedy categories, but with close to TV perfection in the season two episodes Fishes and Forks, The Bear should maul the competition.

The Australian contenders are rather thin on the ground this year but Elizabeth Debicki is a genuine shot in the Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series for her role as Princess Diana in The Crown. Naomi Watts is also nominated for playing socialite in real-life socialite Feud: Capote vs. The Swans but faces a stacked field in the Best Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie that also features two Oscar-winners.

Hiroyuki Sanada as Yoshii Toranaga in Shogun Picture: FX

BEST DRAMA SERIES

The Crown

Fallout

The Gilded Age

The Morning Show

Mr. and Mrs. Smith

Shogun

Slow Horses

3 Body Problem

Video game adaptation Fallout was a whole lot more fun that had any right to be and The Crown was a solid but not spectacular farewell to six seasons of quality drama, but the only show that comes close to knocking off superbly written, acted and staged Shogun is the sensational UK spy saga Slow Horses. The fourth season is now streaming on AppleTV+ and it just keeps getting better.

And the winner is … Shogun

Anna Sawai has been a revelation in Shogun.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Jennifer Aniston – The Morning Show

Carrie Coon – The Gilded Age

Maya Erskine – Mr. and Mrs. Smith

Anna Sawai – Shogun

Imelda Staunton – The Crown

Reese Witherspoon – The Morning Show

If anyone’s going to win from The Morning Show, it’s Jen rather than Reese and Imelda Staunton should be there or thereabouts for the quietly dignified farewell to a much-loved monarch, especially in those memorable final moments of The Crown. The little-known Kiwi-Japanese actor Sawai was a revelation in Shogun for her subtle and restrained portrayal of the trapped, tragic translator Toda Mariko who served as a bridge between East and West.

And the winner is … Anna Sawai

Hiroyuki Sanada as the scheming war lord Yoshii Toranaga. Picture: Colin Bentley/FX

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Idris Elba – Hijack

Donald Glover – Mr. and Mrs. Smith

Walton Goggins – Fallout

Gary Oldman – Slow Horses

Hiroyuki Sanada – Shogun

Dominic West – The Crown

The relish with which Oscar-winner Oldman commits to playing the crafty, whisky-chugging, farting MI5 agent Jackson Lamb is a joy to watch and huge part of the appeal of Slow Horses. But Sanada’s masterful, calculating, ruthless war lord Yoshii Toranaga is the beating heart of Shogun and a performance for the ages.

And the winner is … Hiroyuki Sanada

Elizabeth Debicki made the difficult part of Princess Diana her own in The Crown.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Christine Baranski – The Gilded Age

Nicole Beharie – The Morning Show

Elizabeth Debicki – The Crown

Greta Lee – The Morning Show

Lesley Manville – The Crown

Karen Pittman – The Morning Show

Holland Taylor – The Morning Show

With four nominations in the same category, you’d think that if The Morning Show is going to get a win, it’s going to be here. Aussie Debicki absolutely nailed the tricky part of Princess Diana (even the bits where she was a ghost) and would be a worthy winner – having already won a Golden Globe for the role – although her stiffest competition could come from her co-star Manville for her perennially sozzled Princess Margaret.

And the winner is … Elizabeth Debicki

Billy Crudup and Jon Hamm in Morning Wars on Apple TV+

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Tadanobu Asano – Shogun

Billy Crudup – The Morning Show

Mark Duplass – The Morning Show

Jon Hamm – The Morning Show

Takehiro Hira – Shogun

Jack Lowden – Slow Horses

Jonathan Pryce – The Crown

Tough category to pick. Pryce was good as the ageing Prince Philip in The Crown, but even better as a fading spymaster in Slow Horses. Hamm is probably a better chance for his role in Fargo but could edge it here, although he’d have to sneak past his Morning Show co-star Crudup to take the prize. Veteran Japanese actor Asano was also terrific as the crafty, pragmatic Lord Kashigi Yabushige in Shogun.

And the winner is … Billy Crudup

Jeremy Allen White and Ayo Edebiri in The Bear. Picture: FX

BEST COMEDY SERIES

Abbott Elementary

The Bear

Curb Your Enthusiasm

Hacks

Only Murders in the Building

Palm Royale

Reservation Dogs

What We Do in the Shadows

There might be some love for the reliable if not remarkable Abbott Elementary or the star-studded Only Murders In the Building, but it’s a two-horse race between Hacks and The Bear for this one. If it were measured on laughs per episode then Hacks wins hands-down but the sheer quality and emotional heft of The Bear should provide the right recipe.

And the winner is … The Bear

Jeremy Allen White as Carmen “Carmy” Berzatto in The Bear

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Matt Berry – What We Do in the Shadows

Larry David – Curb Your Enthusiasm

Steve Martin – Only Murders in the Building

Martin Short – Only Murders in the Building

Jeremy Allen White – The Bear

D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai – Reservation Dogs

David has been nominated in this category for Curb Your Enthusiasm eight times for zero wins, and barring a wave of nostalgia is unlikely to change that in his last attempt. It feels like old pals Short and Martin just about cancel each other out which leaves raging favourite White for his mopey, damaged culinary genius who just can’t get out of his own way.

And the winner is … Jeremy Allen White

Jean Smart as Deborah Vance in Hacks.

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary

Ayo Edebiri – The Bear

Selena Gomez – Only Murders in the Building

Maya Rudolph – Loot

Jean Smart – Hacks

Kristen Wiig – Palm Royale

Former Saturday Night Live cast mates Rudolph and Wiig were a lot of fun in Loot and Palm Royale respectively, but this might be a category where Hacks gets the last laugh over The Bear. Veteran Smart is just getting better and better as Deborah Vance, allowing the acerbic and often awful comedian’s vulnerability and ambition to shine through just enough to keep audiences cheering for her to succeed in a male-dominated world.

And the winner is … Jean Smart

Ebon Moss-Bachrach as Richard “Richie” Jerimovich in The Bear. CR: FX.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Lionel Boyce – The Bear

Paul W. Downs – Hacks

Ebon Moss-Bachrach – The Bear

Paul Rudd – Only Murders in the Building

Tyler James Williams – Abbott Elementary

Bowen Yang – Saturday Night Live

This is the closest we will see to a sure thing on the evening – Moss-Bachrach is just about an unbackable favourite for his role as Richie, the volatile manager of The Bear with a heart of gold. Check out the seventh episode of the second series, Forks, to see why.

And the winner is … Ebon Moss-Bachrach

Hannah Einbinder from Hacks. Picture: Emma McIntyre/Getty Images for IMDb)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Carol Burnett – Palm Royale

Liza Colón-Zayas – The Bear

Hannah Einbinder – Hacks

Janelle James – Abbott Elementary

Sheryl Lee Ralph – Abbott Elementary

Meryl Streep – Only Murders in the Building

Whether Einbinder is in fact a supporting actress in Hacks as opposed to a co-lead is debatable, but she more than stands her ground against Jean Smart in the blazing rows and endless scheming between Ava and her mentor, Deborah. But it’s never wise to count the peerless Streep out of any awards race, particularly in a show as loved as Only Murders in the Building.

And the winner is … Hannah Einbinder