SA Covid peak nears as ‘catastrophe’ averted, modelling shows
SA is on the cusp of its Omicron wave peak which could see up to 10,000 cases a day.
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South Australia is on the cusp of its Omicron wave peak that could hit as early as Saturday.
Forecasts revealed daily Covid-19 infections were at risk of being more than four times higher than they could have been if not for harsh restrictions imposed in late December.
The state government modelling released on Friday predicts the coronavirus surge will slow within a fortnight, as foreshadowed by The Advertiser this week.
The data, compiled by experts from Adelaide University and South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute, forecasts a maximum 10,000 daily cases that could fall to as low as 6000 each day.
But Premier Steven Marshall said SA would have been swamped by an average 30,000 to 40,000 infectious patients a day without tough restrictions from Boxing Day.
Daily cases could have hit 45,000, according to graphs presented on Friday to the Covid Ready Committee that Mr Marshall chairs.
Mr Marshall said the models, which showed a peak could hit from Saturday until January 25, was “alarmingly accurate”.
“We’re right on the cusp of that (peak) at the moment,” he said on the first day after his release from a week’s isolation.
“We believe we will be able to get to this peak and over it in a very short space of time.”
Chief public health officer Nicola Spurrier added: “I would certainly say what we’ve done here in South Australia has averted a catastrophe.”
Latest restrictions forced hospitality venues to operate a one person per 4sq m rule indoors and half density outdoors.
Gyms are restricted to one person per 7sq m, while home gathering caps have been slashed from 30 to 10 people.
Australian Hotels Association SA chief executive Ian Horne condemned the rules that had left the hospitality industry with “no faith”.
“There is clearly no plan or way out for hospitality in the foreseeable future,” he said.
“It is now obvious that the government is not prepared to acknowledge the sacrifice the hospitality industry has made in any meaningful way.”
Mr Marshall said it was “too early” to say when bans could ease but experts would now analyse different restrictions before any decisions were made.
“We want to get to that peak first,” he said.
Prof Spurrier said restrictions were still needed.
“I just can’t explain how significant that has been in reducing our cases here,” she said. “It’s difficult, it’s hard. I know it’s stressful.”
Mr Marshall revealed SA Health had recorded 5679 daily infections on Friday – its highest result – but cautioned it was likely fuelled by a rise in home rapid antigen tests.
A further six people with Covid-19 have died, including two women aged in their 90s and four men – two in their 80s, one in his 70s and one in his 60s – bringing the total number of virus-related fatalities to 36.
SA has now recorded more than 60,000 cases after a rise of 10,000 patients in two days.
Before the Omicron wave, and borders reopening on November 23, SA had recorded fewer than 1000 cases.
Infections are doubling every eight days, compared to every second day at Christmas.
The new modelling, which underpinned a case for restrictions, expects up to 370 hospital patients at the peak and 50 cases in intensive care.
But without restrictions, this would have increased to more than 600 hospital patients and up to 100 ICU cases.
There were 246 patients in hospitals across Adelaide on Friday, up 21 cases in a day.
A further 20 patients were in ICU after six were discharged. Seven ICU cases were on ventilators.
This week the government revealed an extra 108 Covid-19 ward beds. Hospital capacity is now 500 beds, which Mr Marshall said was more than the modelling predicted.
An extra 60 intensive care beds also will be created for an ICU capacity of 280.
SA Health is treating acute patients at the Flinders Medical Centre and Lyell McEwin Hospital, alongside Royal Adelaide wards.
Mr Marshall said transmission potential had been cut by almost two-thirds.
New legal directions ban all travellers with Covid from SA for 10 days except those fleeing domestic violence.
International arrivals must have a negative PCR lab test three days before leaving.
All foreign travellers younger than 12 years and two months will be treated as vaccinated, no matter their status.
Forensic science workers are legally required to get a booster.
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