Omicron variant BA. 5 set to cause spike in SA’s Covid cases, modelling shows

South Australia’s Covid cases are expected to spike at 6000 per day by mid-July as the state grapples with the flu and a new variant of the virus, with elective surgery once again cut.

South Australia’s Covid cases are expected to spike over the next six to eight weeks as the state grapples with a new variant of the virus amid a surge in influenza patients.

Health Minister Chris Picton said non-urgent elective surgery would be reduced and 28 private hospital beds would be accessed for public patients from next week.

The beds will also ease pressure on the system in expectation of a Covid influx - with cases expected to peak at 6000 per day in mid-July, according to the latest SA Health modelling.

SA Health officials believe cases will likely hit between 4000 and 5000 cases based on the Adelaide University modelling, which is more than double current levels.

Hospital rates are expected to increase a short time after, forecasts the modelling, which uses current NSW data.

As well. SA faces a surge in flu cases with latest data showing almost 1200 new flu cases detected in the past week, bringing the total patient count to 4883.

The 4883 total compares to just 16 at about the same time last year and 1549 the year before, when Covid measures were in place and no international flights bringing the flu from the northern hemisphere.

However, in the bad flu year of 2019 there had been 18,811 cases at the same time of year and 27,093 for the full year.

Authorities are urging people to take advantage of the free flu vaccination program which ends on June 30.

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In the past week, almost 30 non-emergency operations have been delayed as the elective surgey cuts were imposed on Adelaide hospitals.

The details emerged as authorities launched a new campaign to urge people to only visit emergency departments in extreme cases and authorities ruled out easing allied health jab mandates.

“We have opened every single hospital bed across the system. The truth is, we have used every single hospital bed that is available,” Mr Picton said.

There are currently more than 100 public patients in private hospitals across the state.

“The key factor that that we’re challenge with is that every single day we are now faced with the situation that there are over 100 patients who are waiting for a bed inside the hospital system, but are stuck in emergency departments,” Mr Picton said.

“We are still facing huge pressure not only on our health system but on people throughout our community, every single day.”

Premier Peter Malinauskas said new modelling showed Omicron sub-variant BA. 5 is believed to have originated in South Africa.

“Case numbers may yet go up over the course of the next six to eight weeks or so, depending on the way the new BA.5 variant starts to roll through South Australia” Mr Malinauskas said.

“In NSW currently the new BA.5 numbers have gone up quite dramatically, to a lesser extent in Victoria.”

Chief public health officer Professor Nicola Spurrier said modelling suggested South Australians who had been infected with the previous BA.1 and BA.2 Omicron strains had a 73 per cent protection against BA.4 and BA.5.

Early data shows hospitalisation numbers were likely to be higher than the previous BA.2 strain.

Numbers were expected to begin rising in the middle of next week, with the peak set to hit around 12 July.

Prof Spurrier said hospitalisations were likely to increase “a little time later” after that.

“This is not a time for complacency. We can’t just think, ‘Oh I’m tired of hearing about Covid’ ... we do have a large number of cases in the community.”

The health chief said BA.4 and the new BA.5 only comprised about six per cent of Covid cases in SA currently but that number was expected to rise significantly.

Mr Malinauskas said a small number of BA.5 cases had been detected in South Australia so far, with higher transmissibility and issues around immunity likely to drive increased infections.

“This is what we are going to see over the course of the months and years ahead … cases may go up and cases will go down,” Mr Malinauskas said.

“Case numbers have come down quite dramatically. They’re currently around that 2000 number, however hospitalisations have remained about the same.”

Mr Malinauskas said rising case numbers “should not be a source of panic” and would not see a change in restrictions.

Further details are expected to be released early Tuesday afternoon.

The modelling comes as South Australia records 2270 new cases and 11 deaths, with 230 people currently hospitalised.

JUST IN: Premier @PMalinauskasMP says COVID cases likely to spike over next 6-8 weeks.

New modeling presented to this morning’s Emergency Management Committee shows BA.5 variant will be the driver.

More details will be released later today. @9NewsAdelpic.twitter.com/0Yrc3cg0M7

— Mike Lorigan (@mikelorigan) June 21, 2022

New data suggests the BA. 5 sub-variant could have evolved to infect lung issue – as the earlier strains did – potentially making the pending wave more dangerous than the last.

The predicted surge in cases comes after the death of a child aged under three with Covid last week, sparking fresh warnings from the health chief for families to get vaccinated.

Professor Nicola Spurrier said of 89,098 children aged under 11 in SA who had caught Covid since November 23, there had been three deaths – all aged under five.

“The best thing families can do because we are not vaccinating that age group is to make sure everyone else in the family is vaccinated, and we are being very clear here in South Australia that being vaccinated is three doses,” she said.

A new needle-free Covid-19 vaccine designed and manufactured in Adelaide is starting human trials this week, with the potential to become a major export earner.

The vaccine specifically targets the highly-transmissible Omicron variant and its makers say it easily can be adapted to fight future variants.