New Omicron Covid wave set to send hospital cases skyrocketing

Forecasts of a “dangerous” surge in hospitalisations are coming to pass. Another death is recorded and 254 people are in hospital with Covid.

Warnings that South Australia is facing a “dangerous” surge of Covid cases in hospital seem to be accurate, as new case numbers hover around the 4000 mark.

On Tuesday, SA Health said new modelling forecast a rise in hospitalisations of people suffering with only Covid from fewer than 100 cases to more than 150 within three weeks.

At that time, there were 234 Covid patients in hospital, some of whom have other conditions.

By Wednesday, hospitalisations had risen to 267 – a 14 per cent rise – including 11 in ICU.

On Thursday, hospitalisation numbers had returned to 254.
There are now 20,682 active Covid cases in SA.

The Adelaide University modelling was presented to the Emergency Management Council on Monday, during which officials raised concerns about a new Omicron wave of strains BA. 4 and BA.5.

Health Minister Chris Picton said there was no consideration at this stage about imposing new restrictions but said urgent work had started to locate more hospital beds.

“Clearly we’re facing a really dangerous situation in terms of our hospital situation, and our health services because we clearly don’t have the capacity in our system, which hasn’t been there for a long time,” he said.

“We haven’t seen increasing number of beds and facilities available. And we’ve opened up every possible bed we can across the health system to cope with the demand we’re seeing.”

Professor Nicola Spurrier speaking to the media at the Ukrainian Club on Tuesday. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Naomi Jellicoe

The Advertiser revealed how chief public health officer Professor Nicola Spurrier told officials the wave was highly likely to produce between 5000 and 6000 daily cases within three weeks.

Over the past few days, cases have fluctuated around 2500. On Tuesday SA Health reported 3141 new Covid cases.

New strain data is being compiled but the new variants are expected to become the dominant virus within weeks.

Prof Spurrier on Tuesday warned of increasing hospital pressure.

“It really follows the same picture as what is being seen in the eastern states, a couple of weeks delayed, and in the eastern states are starting to see increases in hospitalisation rates,” she said.

“Of course, that’s one of our major concerns from a health perspective is that our hospitals are getting significantly impacted, and that includes furloughing of our staff.

“Now fortunately, what goes up also comes down as people know the waves come through and then it reduces again.

“But there’s a lot that we can do with South Australians to reduce the height of that curve.”

She pleaded for mask use and health hygiene but ruled out mandates as she was “quite comfortable” at the current rules.

Opposition health spokeswoman Ashton Hurn said the “stressed, exhausted healthcare workers are crying out for help, but this crisis is only worsening”.

“With our health system already at breaking point, the revelation that Covid hospitalisations are set to skyrocket this month is frightening to say the least,” she said.

“For months we have expressed concerns that Labor is unprepared to cope with this unprecedented winter. They were dragged kicking and screaming to act, like releasing a winter hospital demand plan and delivering free flu vaccinations for all South Australians.”

Another 1096 influenza cases have been reported in the past week, with 699 people in hospital.

It brings the total so far this year to 7338 cases, easily the highest around this time in the past six years apart from the horror flu year of 2019.

In the year to June 25, 2019, there had been 19,950 cases, while at the same time last year – amid Covid security such as masks, social distancing, negligible international travel and a focus on hand hygiene and cough etiquette – there were just 16.

The details emerged after The Advertiser revealed the state government is begging for the rules of who can access lifesaving Covid antivirals to be relaxed amid a case surge and new advice to resume mask use.

The EMC on Monday heard confusing and restrictive antiviral rules resulted in unacceptable public health risks.

Mr Picton said relaxing the rules would save lives.

Federal Health Minister Mark Butler will this week meet with the federal government’s 21-member expert advisory panel, the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee, to relax eligibility rules.

Currently, antiviral drugs are limited to people who are immunocompromised or those aged over 65 with some sort of comorbidity, such as diabetes.

Despite a stockpile of more than 500,000 doses just 20,000 vials have been used so far.

Mr Butler told ABC Radio he was hopeful of rules easing.

“We have these extraordinary new treatments now that people are able to take orally … up until pretty recently if you had antiviral treatments you were getting them in hospital intravenously, which is obviously pretty complex and means you have to have got to hospital in the first place,” he said.

“I’m really hopeful that we’ll get a decision to broaden eligibility and we can get that into force or into practise very, very soon.”