Expert warning: Return of international tourism likely to bring the flu

Experts have warned that the return of international tourists will bring back one particular viral infection.

Australia’s two-year streak of having barely any influenza cases is likely to end this winter with experts predicting the virus will resurface with the return of international tourists.

Since the onset of the pandemic, flu presentations have dramatically fallen prompting NSW Health to temporarily suspend its annual influenza surveillance report for 2020 and 2021.

NSW Health data showed that the state had almost 120,000 cases of influenza in 2019 with 334 deaths but in 2020 there were just 21,266 cases Australia-wide and in 2021, less than 600 cases nationally.

But experts say the lucky streak is unlikely to last with tourists welcome in Australia from today.

Experts are urging people to get their flu shot to avoid a nasty infection.

Infectious diseases expert Professor Paul Griffin said low flu vaccination uptake and limited immunity in the public could see cases rise.

In 2017, NSW grappled with pandemic influenza because the community did not have widespread immunity to the strains circulating but Prof Griffin said in 2022, there could still be only a “modest” flu season despite the low immunity.

“The consequence of our focus on Covid and such little flu is that perhaps we now have a more vulnerable population because we’ve had very little immunity from infections and low vaccination rates,” he said.

“We may see a fairly modest flu season this year but with our susceptible population, if we don’t address the flu vaccination, it will still be a very significant burden on our health systems.”

Prof Griffin said the return of international tourists would be a challenge as they will bring in the flu from the northern hemisphere.

“What we’ve seen is the mitigation strategies employed to curb Covid has been very effective with limiting the flu as well. And the ban on international travel has stopped the imported cases of flu and we will have that again from Monday,” he said.

NSW Chief Health Officer Dr Kerry Chant has warned against the emergence of the flu. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Damian Shaw

“As international travel resumes, it’ll be really hard to predict what happens. The flu season may not occur at the usual time as it won’t be driven by changes in the weather and the associated behaviour changes. It could happen anywhere from the next few weeks to later in the year.”

Despite the risk, he added that the greater focus on hand hygiene and remote working will help keep flu cases low.

“All the leanings that have been effective in Covid will work very well against the flu. All those simple hygiene measures, staying home if you’re unwell, getting tests, we’ve been wanting people to do those things for the flu for a very long time.”

Prof Griffin’s comments have been mirrored by chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant who cautioned Australians to not get complacent.

“We also need to consider the resurgence of influenza, we haven’t had a flu season for the last couple of years, with borders open we have seen the flu come back in the northern hemisphere,’ she said on Thursday.

“We have to plan for a bad flu season but it’s not inevitable we will see one. ”

Originally published as Expert warning: Return of international tourism likely to bring the flu