Daniel Wills: Shutting borders to save lives has been wildly popular. Killing jobs by keeping them shut too long risks election backlash.
Premiers want to decide who comes to their states and the manner in which they come, but queues of angry jobless workers will make them regret bad decisions, writes Daniel Wills.
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A divided country is starting to get back on its feet, but the border skirmishes continue as fresh outbreaks in Victoria shatter the illusion that coronavirus has been beaten.
On Monday, the local economy moved into phase three of easing restrictions, allowing businesses to squeeze more people in and offering hope they can get thousands back to work.
Just as that was happening, Premier Steven Marshall slammed shut a playbook that would have opened the Victorian border on July 20, as a surge in cases and community transition there raised alarm.
The tourism sector expressed its disappointment, saying extension of that lockdown will result in a slower economic recovery for SA and keep a nearly $1 billion market shut.
It’s just another example since this pandemic broke out in Australia of how complex the balance is between rebuilding jobs and saving lives, as well as how precarious the politics of getting it right will be.
There is risk on all sides. Opening too slowly risks aggravating people who have been diligently doing the right thing.
Opening too fast invites outbreaks like that ripping through Victoria, and return of restrictions that for a happy moment Australia thought it was leaving behind. This will be the central political issue for months, probably years.
The Australian newspaper this week released a poll showing how voters think their premiers are currently handling it.
The numbers of support were exceptionally high across the board as voters rush for a security blanket and Australia, despite real ongoing challenges, becomes the world’s envy.
Predictably, Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews was the straggler as cases continue to mount. But he still has a very healthy 72 per cent of people backing him over COVID.
Out in front were the Tasmanian and WA premiers, with 93 per cent in their states saying they were handling the crisis well. Those are unprecedented numbers in a political poll.
Usually, you barely get that much consensus on if today is Saturday.
Premier Steven Marshall, a little back in the pack, banked a nonetheless huge 87 per cent support.
What stands out most is a two-speed result for leaders of states with open borders, and those talking the toughest about keeping people out.
Closed borders are popular.
Mr Marshall’s decision to indefinitely abandon plans to open to Victoria, taken after The Australian’s polling period, will likely add to the strong support he already has.
But he was the first premier of a lockdown state to start lifting those restrictions, even with others unwilling to join him, and it has likely had an effect in keeping him from the top of the leadership table.
At times of peril, real or perceived, the world shrinks. Australians, facing twin economic and health crises, are ready to start building walls.
There’s an unavoidable comparison in the state border spats to the debate Australia has had ever since former prime minister John Howard’s declared “we will decide who comes to this country and the circumstances in which they come”.
Almost every federal election since that speech has shown border protection to be a vote winner.
That increasingly applies to economic protectionism too. The reanimation of One Nation, shifts in Australia’s major parties on trade and populism in the US are all consequences of a re-emerging voter impulse to focus on the home front.
Doubtless, Mr Marshall’s decision to keep the Victorian border closed has sound health backing. New outbreaks are going to take a long time to control. Victoria is a special and worrying case.
But the mounting evidence is very different for the rest of the country.
The decisions of other premiers, like those in WA and Tasmania to keep South Australians and everyone else out, are very hard to explain.
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On our health record, as good as any, they have nothing to fear from us. It can only be politics.
Rather than explain the complexities of risk, it is far simpler for them to just keep playing the border protection card.
Lockdowns put in place as COVID first took hold made this recession. Leaders who made those calls are, on balance, reaping political rewards. They saved lives. It has been a huge win for evidence-based policy.
But with health defences now built up and most state curves flat, public focus is quickly shifting back to livelihoods.
In SA alone, almost 50,000 people have already lost the dignity of work. If they can’t get it back, or others join them, the anger will burn deep and long.
Leaders who can pull off a victory in the health crisis and drive a solid economic comeback will have won two battles rather than one.
Those who stay shut up, and play into fear, risk confusing what’s in the rear-view mirror for what’s waiting down the road.