Covid-19 modelling shows Omicron wave in SA will be avoided by easing restriction each fortnight

New Covid modelling is giving SA the green light to gradually ease restrictions – allowing the state to dodge a feared second Omicron wave.

South Australia should avoid a second Omicron wave of Covid-19 cases if restrictions are eased every fortnight, official modelling has predicted.

New forecasting, released by SA Health late on Sunday, shows a “transmission potential” increase of between 10 and 13 per cent over the next month.

The trajectories, up until mid-April, detail a daily increase of more than 2000 cases but this will gradually fall to around 1000 a day.

The forecasts, which were presented to the Covid-Ready Committee on January 28, do warn that a “larger exponential increase in case numbers can’t be ruled out with high confidence”.

“Overall, it is estimated that this policy should not result in a second wave of cases,” a briefing note states.

“In that case numbers should most continue to decrease, although at a much slower rate than if (some) activity restrictions were to remain in place.”

The Adelaide University modelling, which the state government’s Covid chiefs are using to underpin its decision on how to exit the pandemic, incorporates the hybrid school plan, which includes home schooling for a vast majority of students and assumes the rollout and uptake of boosters doesn’t fall.

The modelling predicts no second wave. Picture: Adelaide airborne Photography,

It shows a “small rise (or) plateauing in cases/ infections” with the staggered schools reopening and predicts a tiny increase in paediatric hospital admissions and possibly one child sent to intensive care.

“But this increase is estimated to result in a similar (but slightly smaller) peak as seen during the first wave,” the government briefing states.

“The model accounts for the Delta and Omicron (BA. 1) variants, but not for any other sub-lineage or other variants which might emerge.”

“We consider dynamics only up to the middle of April; it is anticipated that waning of 3rd dose boosters will start to become significant from late April, which is likely to require public health management and/or interventions.”

An SA Health spokeswoman said: “The impact will continue to be monitored ahead of any further lifting of restrictions.”

Police Commissioner Grant Stevens, who will authorise all easing of restrictions as state Covid-19 co-ordinator, has pleaded with people to “do better” with getting a booster.

Latest SA Health data shows at least 410,000 people have yet to get a third dose as elective surgery returns to private hospitals and country areas.

Mr Stevens, whose decisions are largely driven by SA Health advice and debate at the CRC, is considering a new tranche of relaxed restrictions by this Friday.

This could include increasing the 10 home gathering caps, boosting density limits to 75 per cent, increasing gym capacity, venue capacities up to 150 guests, allowing standing up drinking, as well as dancing at weddings.

Mr Stevens said the state’s rolling 28 day emergency law declaration, which has been approved 25 times, would be in place for some time yet as the government enters caretaker mode within a fortnight.

Governor Frances Adamson will issue election writs, marking the state of the campaign and “caretaker” government.

During this time, rules state the public service does not enter into major contracts, or makes “binding” decisions, for a new government after polling day, which this year is March 19.

But other functions of government remain, including the CRC, which is chaired by Premier Steven Marshall, who has rejected criticisms he is politicising public health.

A Department of Premier and Cabinet spokeswoman refused to comment about its caretaker policies or release its caretaker rules.

Instead a government spokesman said: “The Premier will continue to lead South Australia’s strong omicron response plan as chair of the CRC.”